Publications

Format: Jun 2018
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Vivendi scenarios for 2011

Vivendi is close to being in a cash position to buy out minority shareholdings in SFR and Canal+, shedding the image of a ‘conglomerate’ of partly owned and diverse assets, which has weighed on valuation Acquiring Vodafone’s 44% stake in SFR (now only a question of price) would allow Vivendi to rebrand itself as a telecoms story, serving France, with Maroc Télécom and mainly Brazil’s GVT supplying the upside To fully acquire Canal+, Vivendi’s offer will need to consider Lagardère’s option of floating its 20% stake. Owning 100% of Canal+ and SFR opens the narrative of a ‘French media/telecoms champion’ – which we find less credible

  • Vodafone
  • SFR
  • Canal Plus
  • Vivendi
Fixed Line, Mobile, Telecoms, Non-UK Media, TV, Media, Non-UK Telecoms 4 November 2010
Vivendi Universal

Vivendi's only agenda at this time is to effect a disposal of its non-core assets for the best price to reduce debt to manageable levels. This note casts a critical eye on prospects for sale of USA Networks (good), Universal Studios (poor) and VU Games (good), as well as the disposal and valuations for other assets such as Universal Music, Groupe Canal+ and Cegetel/SFR.

Media, Telecoms 13 April 2003
Vivendi, Mediaset and the Latin strategy

Vivendi is to acquire the main pay-TV division of Italy’s Mediaset in an all-share transaction, creating a ‘strategic alliance’ between the two groups. Each partner will own a 3.5% stake in the other. The deal is positive for Mediaset but the benefits for Vivendi can only accrue long term

Mediaset Premium claims two million subscribers and recorded €640 million revenue in 2015. However, EBIT losses amounted to €115 million and are likely to more than double through 2016 and beyond. The deal has no discernible impact on Premium’s bigger rival Sky

Vivendi and Mediaset will also jointly operate a ‘global’ online video platform and collectively develop content production and distribution. The pair’s respective assets are sizeable but domestically focused with little demonstrable international synergy

  • Sky
  • Vivendi
Non-UK Media, Media, TV 18 April 2016
VMed Q1 12 results: increased spending on customer equipment and advertising weighs

VMed’s underlying financial performance in Q1 was hit by continuing high capex on customer equipment for TiVo and high speed broadband, and on marketing opex to retain customers Strong take-up of next generation TV, lower cable churn and continuing progress at the Mobile and Business divisions continue to give us confidence that the company’s strategy is working Despite early indications that most cable customers will accept the latest round of price increases, the outlook for underlying cash flow growth in 2012 appears limited

  • Virgin Media
Fixed Line, Mobile, Telecoms, TV, Media 25 April 2012
VMed Q4 2010 results: strong financial performance; prospects more modest in 2011

VMed’s Q4 results were strong financially, although this was partly due to an exceptionally sharp drop in capex; cable volume growth continued to weaken in the face of strong competition from BT Retail and BSkyB

VMed’s results for the past seven quarters have benefited heavily from price increases, which are unlikely to have as great an impact in 2011

Management is developing a range of strong initiatives, including TiVo, 30 and 100 Mbit/s broadband, and fixed-mobile service convergence, but the financial benefits are likely to be felt in 2012 and beyond rather than in 2011. A revamped Virgin Media Business should have a more immediate impact, but we expect group performance in 2011 to be more modest

  • Virgin Media
Fixed Line, Mobile, Telecoms, TV, Media 21 February 2011
VOD edges forward

This report sets out our views about current trends and the longer term potential of Video on Demand (VOD) services in a world of converged TV and PC applications

Contrary to views expressed in the Digital Britain Final Report, we think that the non-linear on demand world will develop very slowly, with VOD applications unlikely to achieve more than 5% share of total TV viewing in ten years‟ time

We project that VOD use will achieve 2% of total TV viewing by 2013, some £300 million in total pay revenues and a little over £100 million in spot advertising revenues

Internet, Media 15 July 2009
Vodafone - The Transition to Being a 'Value" Stock

This report looks at the prospects for mobile operators. It focuses on the UK, and Vodafone in particular, because of the high quality of data available to analysts. We think the main conclusions apply widely across European operators.

It is well placed to weather any downturn, though its dependence on recruitment advertising continues to concern outside observers.

  • Vodafone
Telecoms 27 September 2001
Vodafone 2006/07 results and 2007/08 guidance: unambitious?

Vodafone achieved its 2006/07 full year targets on revenue and profitability, with solid revenue growth (underlying about 2% in Europe) but dropping margins (by around 2pps in Europe)

  • Vodafone
Telecoms, Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms 29 May 2007
Vodafone 2007/08 full year results and outlook: solid prospects, but distractions remain

Vodafone’s Q4 revenues were healthy if a little weak, with underlying growth slowing from 2.0% to 1.8%, but the improvement in Germany is very welcome

  • Vodafone
Telecoms, Mobile 28 May 2008
Vodafone 2007/08 interim results: guidance up, but performance down

Vodafone’s European revenue growth has dropped again in the latest quarter, both relative to the prior quarter and its competitors, with Spain performing particularly poorly

  • Vodafone
Telecoms, Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms 14 November 2007
Vodafone 2008/09 full year results: economy and competition start to hurt

 

Vodafone’s European revenue growth dipped sharply in the March 2009 quarter to -3.3% from -1.4% in the previous quarter, due to a combination of recessionary impact and continuing underperformance of the market

EBITDA margins also declined by 2ppts, with falling handset subsidies more than compensated for by a sharp rise in general operating expenses, despite cost cutting efforts

Implied guidance for Vodafone Europe in 2009/10 of an organic 4-5% drop in revenue and 2ppt dip in EBITDA margin is bleak but realistic, with even these figures at risk if either the economy does not start to recover or the company cannot keep general operating expenses flat

 

  • Vodafone
Mobile, Telecoms 19 May 2009
Vodafone 2008/09 H1 results: underperforming competitors

Vodafone’s European organic service revenue growth dropped again in the September quarter, to -1.3%, and we estimate that it continues to underperform its competitors’ growth by two percentage points, thus losing market share. Margins also fell, as the company’s cost reduction measures continue to fail to stop costs rising

  • Vodafone
Telecoms, Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms 13 November 2008
Vodafone 2009/10 FY results: economic recovery benefits revenue, costs not-so-much

Vodafone Europe’s organic revenue growth improved again, from -3.2% to -2.4%, with it enjoying a fair share of the improvement in mobile market growth driven by improving economies across Europe

EBITDA margin fell, partly as a result of weak cost control but mainly because SAC/SRCs rose as Vodafone subsidised consumers getting more expensive handsets, which involves a short term (but not long term) profitability hit

Vodafone Europe could move back into positive revenue growth this year as it rides the wave of market recovery, but short term margin targets will be hard to hit as handset subsidies continue to rise

 

  • Vodafone
Mobile, Telecoms 18 May 2010
Vodafone 360 - all spin?

Vodafone has launched a suite of internet services, platforms and handsets under the ‘Vodafone 360’ umbrella brand

Our views are mixed: we applaud the contacts back-up service that will be available across a wide range of handsets, provided it proves user friendly, but are puzzled by the point of a Vodafone-designed user interface built onto a fairly obscure smartphone operating system

Overall, if Vodafone 360 can stimulate data usage amongst low- to mid-end handset users, Vodafone would profit in both revenue and loyalty terms, but competing at the high end with the likes of Apple, RIM and Google strikes us as both needless and futile

  • Vodafone
Telecoms, Mobile 23 September 2009
Vodafone 3G Launch

Vodafone this week announced its formal 3G launch to great fanfare, with new handsets, services and pricing. This brief note gives our view on the launch and likely impact in Europe and Japan.

 

 

 

  • Vodafone
Telecoms, Mobile 12 November 2004
Vodafone and Cable & Wireless Worldwide: a UK telecoms milestone in prospect

Vodafone’s proposed acquisition of Cable & Wireless Worldwide is far from a done deal and is unlikely to be completed until September

The cost synergies are real but likely slim, with the main rationale being to cost effectively expand Vodafone’s fixed enterprise business in the UK, and to gain the expertise to do this elsewhere

The impact of an acquisition, while gradual, would reverberate for years to come. Wireline wholesalers, then corporate service retailers would be affected, notably BT. Later, the impact could spread to the small business segment. The prospect of Vodafone’s re-entry into the UK residential wireline market would remain distant but more likely

  • Vodafone
  • Cable & Wireless
  • BT
Fixed Line, Mobile, Telecoms 23 April 2012
Vodafone chooses wholesale broadband from BT

Vodafone is taking the first step in implementing its convergence strategy in the UK by buying broadband from BT Wholesale; while we believe the strategy is misguided, Vodafone’s approach is at least cautious 

The company is at least unlikely to be losing money on the product, and is perhaps just sensibly testing the water for positive consumer interest in a bundled package from Vodafone

We expect the water to be very cold - results from Orange, NTL and BT suggest continued very low consumer interest in fixed-mobile convergence, and we doubt that Vodafone will fare much better

  • Vodafone
Telecoms 14 September 2006
Vodafone December quarter KPIs: improved performance, and prospects good for 2008

Vodafone’s European performance was very solid, with underlying growth of 1.9%, up from 1.7% last quarter, with some very encouraging moderation to price cuts in Germany and elsewhere

  • Vodafone
Telecoms, Mobile 1 February 2008
Vodafone December quarter update: inflection attained

Vodafone’s European revenue growth improved by 1.4 percentage points in the December 2009 quarter to reach -3.2%, the first improvement since the start of the economic slowdown in 2008

While data revenue is growing fast in absolute terms, its contribution to growth is flat to slightly down, with the main driver being more traditional services improving due to the recovery in year-on-year GDP growth

We expect revenue growth to continue to improve as economic comparables improve, with a return to positive growth likely by the end of 2010

  • Vodafone
Telecoms, Fixed Line, Non-UK Telecoms 4 February 2010
Vodafone drops Carphone Warehouse, but who will fall further?

In a fit of pique over increasing subsidies, Vodafone UK is dropping Carphone Warehouse (CPW) as a distributor, and moving exclusively to Phones4U with lower subsidy levels and volume guarantees, while Orange is reportedly also considering its position with CPW

  • Vodafone
  • Orange
  • Carphone Warehouse
Telecoms, Mobile 14 October 2006

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