Publications

Format: Jun 2015
Sector(s) Datesort ascending
UK TV and display advertising outlook

The enclosed presentation updates our latest UK TV and display media advertising figures to reflect the dramatic downgrading of the state of the UK economy in recent weeks and days, ending talk of a shallow and short recession. Our central case assumption is of a 2% real GDP decline in 2009, led by a consumption decline of 3%, but we recognise that the UK economy has entered a long and uncertain period of adjustment, with few historical parallels, which will require constant updating of our forecasts as it evolves. On our central case, total UK advertising will be down almost 5% in 2008 to £16.8 billion, with a further decline of 12% in 2009. The declines for display advertising are sharper, and will accelerate the structural changes taking place in the UK media landscape mainly due to the shift to the internet

 

Media, TV 20 November 2008
French Pay-TV: Back to growth?

This presentation on the French pay-TV market covers the principal recent developments on that market and the positioning of suppliers, including Vivendi's Canal+, France Télécom's Orange, Numericable and alnets Iliad and SFR. French TV homes are rapidly switching over to 'free' multichannel TV services, but the upside for premium subscriptions is modest. To maintain positioning as the dominant premium content provider, Canal+ is both improving the user experience of its core DTH subscribers (e.g. the new Le Cube), and widening its partnerships with network operators to offer on-demand to Canal+ subscribers. Orange is one significant exception, due to the rivalry initiated by the launch of Orange TV pay services in July 2008. This rivalry was a factor in lower subscription levels for Canal+ in Q3 2008, down to 10.41 million, in addition to the ongoing lure of free, plus the economic downturn and credit crunch. The target of 11.5 million subscriptions by 2011 looks out of reach (Orange Threat to Canal+ Targets [2008-24])

 

Media, TV 18 November 2008
BT FY 2008-09 Q2 results: resilience reduced by cost control issues at Global Services

As announced in the October trading update, BT’s Q2 results were hit by poor cost control at Global Services. Performance elsewhere was reasonable but was shored up at group level by a spike in contribution from non-core business

  • BT
Telecoms, Fixed Line 17 November 2008
Local Media and BBC Video

This report examines the role of local commercial media in supplying the information needs of the UK’s many communities, in the context of the BBC’s ‘Local Video’ plans to add video to its local online services. Unlike the BBC services, which are publicly funded, regional and local commercial media must cover their costs from revenue earned from circulation and advertising. On top of the structural shift to the internet of media consumption and advertising, their business models are severely stressed by the ongoing recession, which will only widen the gap between the BBC’s revenues and that of commercial media. The BBC Trust’s decision on the local video plans will be a game-changer for local commercial media in the UK

  • BBC
Media, TV, Internet 13 November 2008
Vodafone 2008/09 H1 results: underperforming competitors

Vodafone’s European organic service revenue growth dropped again in the September quarter, to -1.3%, and we estimate that it continues to underperform its competitors’ growth by two percentage points, thus losing market share. Margins also fell, as the company’s cost reduction measures continue to fail to stop costs rising

  • Vodafone
Telecoms, Mobile, Non-UK Telecoms 13 November 2008
Cable & Wireless half year results to September 2008: free at last

The UK business (EAUS) is continuing to improve ahead of guidance as expected and its turnround can now be judged a success. Management has announced an aggressive plan to extract synergy from the recently acquired Thus

  • Cable & Wireless
Telecoms, Mobile, Fixed Line 12 November 2008
Virgin Media Q3 2008 results: significant improvement, but economic environment continuing to present challenges

Virgin Media’s Q3 results represent a significant step in the recovery of the business, with ARPU and consumer cable revenue stable for the first time in 18 months. Group OCF growth was hit by one-off opex reductions in the prior quarter but continues to grow on an underlying basis

  • Virgin Media
TV, Media, Telecoms, Fixed Line 7 November 2008
Sky Q1 2009 results: riding the economic downturn

Another robust set of subscriber KPIs provides little indication of the economic downturn taking its toll, other than a sharp 1.1% jump in churn over the previous quarter, which could reflect other factors. The bigger issue appears to be subscriber spin-down to less expensive packages

 

 

 

  • Sky
TV, Media 4 November 2008
UK Residential Broadband Market: maturity rapidly approaching

This report examines recent developments in the UK residential market for broadband internet access. We consider the outlook over the next five years for total market volume and market shares

Telecoms, Fixed Line 3 November 2008
BT pre-quarterly results trading update: cost control issues at Global Services

On 31st October BT announced that Q2 EBITDA and EPS will be slightly below expectations as a result of a sharp deterioration in performance at Global Services (GS) and that GS CEO Francois Barrault has been replaced by erstwhile Group Finance Director Hanif Lalani

  • BT
Fixed Line, Telecoms 31 October 2008
Nokia Comes With Music: one hit wonder?

The Nokia Comes With Music (CWM) service bundles a music-centric handset with an unlimited music downloads service, allowing consumers to easily take advantage of their handsets’ music functionality, and have no need for a separate iPod

 

 

 

  • Nokia
Mobile, Telecoms, Music and Radio, Media 28 October 2008
The Digital One radio multiplex: desperately seeking subsidy

Following Channel 4’s decision not to proceed with its plans for digital radio, there is a glut of unused capacity on the existing national digital commercial radio multiplex (owned by Digital One) which threatens its commercial viability

  • Channel 4
Media, Music and Radio 20 October 2008
Google and copyright news

Google has lost another copyright proceeding in a major European market, this time in Germany (it will appeal), on top of the 2007 judgement in Belgium that found against Google in favour of Copiepresse, on behalf of a group of newspapers. In the US, Google is also facing litigation over copyright, plus the suits filed against YouTube

  • Google
Telecoms 20 October 2008
Carphone Warehouse Q2 trading update: walking briskly against the wind

Distribution connection numbers were strong (+9%), especially on contract (+21%), despite a reduction in store expansion and the consumer slowdown which is affecting other consumer electronics businesses

  • Carphone Warehouse
Telecoms, Mobile 19 October 2008
US mechanical rates outcome – the status quo prevails

The Copyright Royalty Board ruling issued on 2nd October gives the US music industry certainty on the statutory mechanical royalty rates payable to music publishers for 2008-2012

Media, Music and Radio, Non-UK Media 11 October 2008
Channel 4 radio: six feet under

Channel 4 has announced the immediate withdrawal of its majority stake in 4 Digital Group, a new venture that was awarded the licence by Ofcom in 2007 to build the UK’s second national commercial radio DAB multiplex, and Channel 4 will not be launching its promised portfolio of broadcast radio channels

The obvious culprit is the weak economy, with mobile telecoms seeming to be more vulnerable to consumer cutbacks than previously thought, a hypothesis supported by recent consumer research

With European economic growth forecast to decline further, revenue growth is likely to drop below zero by the beginning of 2009, and then progressively worsen through 2009 as regulatory effects worsen, creating a very tough environment for mobile operators to preserve margins

 

  • Channel 4
Media, Music and Radio 11 October 2008
PVR+

Call it the Personal Video Recorder (PVR), the Digital Video Recorder (DVR), the Digital Television Recorder (DTR), or just Armageddon brought to Madison Avenue, this machine excited curiosity and angst from the very beginning due to its destructive potential for ad avoidance. That was at the end of the last millennium, since when the TV advertising industry has learned to take a more relaxed view. Early take-up was much slower than the forecasts had suggested, and once it became possible to measure PVR use electronically, there appeared to be more live viewing and less fast-forwarding through commercials than early market research interviews of PVR owners had suggested. But, it is also clear that the PVR is changing viewing habits over time and take-up in the UK is at last starting to rocket. This report examines current market trends and the impact of the PVR on viewing habits. It also updates our forecasts from April 2006

 

 

 

Media, TV 8 October 2008
UK Classified Advertising

UK classified advertising, which generated £4.8 billion in 2007 (26% of total UK advertising spend), could decline to £4.2 billion in 2008 and to £3.7 billion in 2009. In our view, advertisers are accelerating their shift online as a result of the economic downturn, while the property market’s steep decline depresses associated classifieds. Online has already overtaken national newspapers and magazines as classified advertising media, and looks set to rise above directories in 2008. In the near future, online will be the leading classified advertising medium, ahead of regional newspapers. The enclosed presentation updates for 2008 the information contained in Classified Advertising in the UK [2007-55]

 

 

 

Media, Press, Internet 7 October 2008
The second national digital radio multiplex

The second national digital radio multiplex, awarded by Ofcom in July 2007 to 4 Digital Group, has not yet been built, despite having promised a launch within twelve months

Media, Music and Radio 30 September 2008
Ofcom Second Consultation on pay-TV and the root wholesale issue

Ofcom’s second consultation document in its pay-TV investigation has focused on BSkyB’s wholesaling of designated premium film and sports channels, reviving memories of previous regulatory efforts to address the content wholesale/retail issue

 

 

  • Sky
Media, TV 30 September 2008

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