Big tech, even the US economy at large, is betting the house on AI. Some air might come out of the bubble, but AI investments’ trajectory will stay the course over the next 24 months.

UK national media and content creators face an acute challenge as they exploit global platforms’ ‘export’ opportunities, with AI’s ‘glocalisation’ potential a key new trend for future online video.

AI platforms could create an even tougher online media environment over the next few years. OpenAI’s spending plans are predicated on resetting how people shop, search and access entertainment.

DMGT proposes to acquire Telegraph Media Group (TMG) after RedBird Capital pulled its bid. 

TMG has a pristine balance sheet and is ready to be sold by RedBird IMI for the reserve price of £500 million to DMGT.

Lacklustre results for the topline in 2024 are partly due to the lengthy period of limbo since May 2023, but EBITDA is steady at £61 million.

Altnet losses expanded to £1.5bn in 2024, as EBITDA losses persisted and interest costs rose sharply, with ARPUs weakening and operating costs stubbornly high, and the increasing interest burden looking unpayable under any reasonable scenario.

Even the best performing altnets can barely make EBITDA breakeven, and not make sufficient margins to cover ongoing customer acquisition investment, resulting in a perpetual cash drain for their investors.

The impact on the rest of the sector is worsening in the short term as pricing falls, but this should accelerate the inevitable consolidation into a sustainable wholesale model under CityFibre and/or VMO2/nexfibre.

Paramount wins the rights to the largest packages of Champions League matches for 2027-31 in the UK and Germany, taking over from TNT Sports and DAZN.

In the UK, increased fragmentation of premium football coverage strengthens Sky’s attractiveness as an aggregator.

In Germany, Paramount will accelerate the market reshuffle.

DAZN is on track to reach profitability in 2026, the tenth year since its launch, supported by Foxtel’s full-year consolidation and the margin improvements already evident in its 2024 accounts.

Foxtel’s integration diversifies the group, with Australia becoming DAZN’s largest market by revenue.

Expansion in ancillary areas (betting, product developments) and the distribution of third-party services under revenue-sharing agreements complements DAZN’s rights’ ownership in key markets.

Q2 results were something of a mixed bag. Headline growth was solid thanks to 1&1 onboarding, and whilst underlying trends in Germany for both revenue and EBITDA were still firmly negative, the former stabilised and the latter improved.

Tightening of EBITDA guidance in Europe is welcome, implying a flat headline performance and an underlying EBITDA decline of no more than 4%, with the potential for better, we believe.

VodafoneThree synergies and cloud reselling should take over the growth mantle when the 1&1 boost fades, facilitating some limited capacity for dividend growth.

Disney’s streaming business grew healthily, with Q4 YoY revenue growth (+8%) outpacing Q3 (+6%). Cinema had another tough quarter, although the full year ended well ahead 

Disney's progress on new platforms—in particular its efforts on Fortnite and the launch of ESPN's new app—increases the pressure on its US linear operation: it may not yet be moribund but has declining relevance to the rest of the business

In the UK, Disney+ continues to be challenged by its engagement levels—e.g. top new shows, a major driver, are relatively less likely to cut through its user base—but there appears to be a disconnect between lower usage and churn

Comcast/Sky is in preliminary discussions to acquire ITV’s broadcast and streaming operations. With a larger audience footprint, better tech and a broader range of British content, the rationale is that the merged entity would be better placed to compete with global streaming giants.

The belief will be that the downward momentum of both parties will be slowed, and the offering is more likely to be a primary viewing choice. There is a danger that ITV may lose some of its unique identity.

The deal will need to clear regulatory hurdles including concerns on media plurality. The harder test will be convincing the CMA that the relevant advertising market is wider than just broadcasters.

Bids for the Champions League media rights from 2027 are expected by 18 November across all top five European markets.

In an attempt at injecting competitive tension, a new ‘global’ Tuesday first pick fixture is on offer. Amazon looks like the favourite bidder.

Incumbent rights licensees prioritise cost savings over coverage expansion.

BT’s financial performance in Q2 was much the same as the previous quarter, despite growing pressure on consumer and wholesale broadband from altnets and competitive responses to them.
 

We see this pressure easing in time, due to roll-out slowdowns and the inevitable consolidation of the altnet industry into a wholesale model, but there may be some tricky quarters ahead.
 

Current full year guidance looks nonetheless very achievable and sustained growth thereafter looks likely, with earlier rather than later consolidation good for BT as well as the altnets themselves.