BT had a solid Q3 in financial terms, with various oneoffs hitting headline growth rates but underlying trends very much robust.

The highlight was reduced broadband line losses for Openreach, both in the quarter and in prospect, with retail altnets slowing faster than CityFibre improves.

Recent developments put the pace of altnet consolidation in doubt, but we expect reduced pressure on BT Consumer and Openreach in 2026 regardless.
 

Service revenue trends and themes were broadly consistent with those of last quarter, with management commentary suggesting German EBITDA decline of 8%+ this year.

Strong growth from VodafoneThree, better underlying trends in Germany, and fortuitous currency moves are all likely to be required to hit analyst estimates for next year, and there are reasons to be optimistic about prospects for at least some of them.

VodafoneThree’s mobile strategy seems to be quite defensive for now, save for a foray into the family market, and its approach to FWA looks likely to be quite cautious too.

Display advertising is forecast to grow c.7% in 2026 despite lacklustre consumer confidence, out of sync with the gradual economic recovery.

Online advertising has doubled its share of online consumer spend since 2015. Major ad platforms account for over 40% of all UK display advertising spend.

Mature media’s prospects more closely align with the UK economy, with real term growth unlikely this year.

Project Gigabit has made reasonable progress in allocating subsidy contracts covering 1.1 million premises, and the contract holders look on track to complete their build-outs well before the 2032 deadline.

However, this leaves c.1.5 million premises still without the prospect of gigabit broadband, no firm steer as to when contracts covering these might be awarded, and a reduced per-home budget available to cover them.

Openreach looks likely to win most or all of these, and to take over earlier contracts should altnets pull back or fail (an increasingly likely occurrence), increasing its share of subsidised coverage from the current c.30% to around 70% or above.

Disney's Entertainment revenues rose 5% year-on-year to $26.0 billion in Q1, although content and marketing costs pressured operating income down (-9%, $4.6 billion). Management outlined its plan to create a Disney+ home for AI content.

Although a very early development, after 18 months of widening, improvements in Disney+'s UK engagement has seen its gap with Netflix contract.

Disney's global marketing reorganisation—including the development of a brand stewardship function led from the top of the company—is a broadly positive move from an outfit laboured with long-entrenched vertical silos. 

Recently awakened sleeping giant Amazon is using its vast resources to ramp up an aggressive open web stance, offering advertisers low take rates through its DSP.

Adtech firms risk destroying their own margins in response, so are increasingly extending their positions across the value chain as they compete to offer ‘end-to-end’ services.

2026 will be make or break for the agency holding company model as Omnicom resets and WPP’s need to see the benefits of its turnaround becomes urgent.

CityFibre is progressing well on subscriber growth and EBITDA, albeit consolidation is going much more slowly than we (and likely they) expected.

Recent developments point to altnet consolidation accelerating in 2026, with CityFibre and VMO2 still by far the most likely acquirors.

The impact on the rest of the sector is that some much-needed relief to the retail broadband market is likely, albeit with altnet wholesale gains accelerating

Q4 saw Netflix’s revenue grow 18% YoY (to $12.1 billion), with the subscription base growing 8% across the year. Advertising is now a $1.5 billion business, which is around 3% of total revenues

In the past, Christmas and New Year has been a time for Netflix to make considerable and important gains in the UK, this progression has now stalled

As the fight to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery lurches on, Netflix’s interest in the theatrical business is being scrutinised. The relationship between the cinema and Pay 1 window will inform its strategic direction

Apple News now reaches c.14m monthly users in the UK, making it one of the largest news distribution environments by scale. This reach is driven by default placement on iOS and editorial curation, rather than open-platform referral dynamics.

We estimate there are c.1.7m Apple News+ subscriptions in the UK thanks to Apple One bundling, enabling users to access premium journalism via a subscription they already pay for. News+ revenues are particularly valuable for publishers without strong standalone subscription engines.

Publishers face a clear trade-off: Apple News drives real but bounded reach and revenue, but deepens dependence on a gatekeeper with opaque rules, limited data, and growing power over discovery.

European service revenue growth dipped to -0.5% in Q3 as SFR’s woes took their toll and ongoing pressure in Germany weighed.

The more constructive pricing environment in Germany was short-lived, with O2 stepping up its aggressiveness since September.

For some, competitive intensity is worsening ahead of a consolidation solution, but the Italian and Spanish markets are showing healthier signs.