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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

DMGT is requesting regulatory clearance of its merger with TMG from the Secretary of State for DCMS, which could be granted by March. TMG, a quality brand mainly sold on subscription, will join DMG Media. TMG already outsources print ad sales to Mail Metro Media and printing to Newsprinters (News UK/DMGT).

DMGT’s offer of £500 million for TMG is good news for the UK news industry. DMGT’s valuation of TMG at 8x EBITDA is well above the valuations produced by private equity (PE) funders. PE is a short-term form of financial engineering ill-suited to TMG in the middle of its print-to-digital transition and transformation.

TMG will gain an owner in DMGT that espouses a long-term vision of investment in consumer media. Each news brand produces its own content to serve and retain their audiences. Lord Rothermere practices the principle of editorial independence of each brand to protect each one’s identity.

 

The shift from an explicitly anti-advertisement approach to take advantage of ad revenue reflects a broader trend in media, says Abi Watson, head of publishing at Enders Analysis. “Netflix once defined itself by its refusal to take ads, and now advertising is one of its core strategic pillars.”

Watson believes there is a defensive element to Substack’s new scheme. “Expanding the commercial toolkit helps Substack retain its biggest creators.

“Subscriptions let you monetise only the most committed part of the funnel. Advertising opens up the rest – the large cohort of registered users with low propensity to pay, plus the passing traffic that still has value in aggregate.”

“CNN will struggle against Fox News’ model with its $39.99-per-month ESPN Fox One Bundle, driven by sports. They need to integrate a package ,” believes François Godard, Senior Analyst at Enders Analysis. The key question remains how CNN can integrate a package into the existing offerings of Disney-Hulu-HBO Max and ESPN Fox One. But beyond that, what will happen to CNN if Warner continues to separate its linear channels from its more profitable streaming operations? Not to mention the uncertainties surrounding its strategic priorities if Paramount succeeds in its takeover bid. 

The expected service revenue boost from in-contract price increases failed to materialize this quarter, nullifying the upside surprise last quarter.

Traffic growth picked up again to 17%, lending further weight to the view that at least some of the recent sharp slowdown was somewhat one-off in nature.

Government statistics imply steep mobile price inflation while the opposite is true—which may help to diffuse the current furore over in-contract price increases.

The UK broadcasting sector is undecided on how much to engage with a technology that could simultaneously threaten industry jobs, intellectual property, and competitive advantages. Some do not see themselves as in a position to take risks with AI, but the sector must consider the longer-term risks to inaction.

There is clear value to be unlocked along the production pipeline with AI, and unrealised opportunities for content owners to apply AI to their libraries and enhance discovery.

None in the industry can ignore how AI changes the wider competitive landscape: new AI services will provide audiences with alternative products, and disrupt distribution.

The centre of gravity for kids’ media has shifted. YouTube now captures around 44% of UK children’s viewing, with broadcasters adapting to stay relevant in an environment built around algorithmic discovery and constant replay.

Alongside the BBC, YouTube is one of the few spaces where education and entertainment intersect. Around a third of our sample of 5–8s YouTube Kids videos were educational, while older cohorts gravitate toward faster, creator-driven formats.

There remains a distinction between YouTube and broadcaster kids’ programmes: we found YouTube-native content twice as fast, and brighter, although the broadcast content that also runs on YouTube shows less disparity. Broadly, on YouTube, US-originated formats dominate.
 

DMG Media, the owner of brands including Daily Mail Online and Metro, has complained about AI overviews leading to a drop in referrals to its websites of 89 per cent. The publisher told the Competition and Markets Authority that Google’s summaries were “carefully constructed” to ensure “the user has no reason to read any further” than the search page. Meanwhile, Enders Analysis, the research group, has warned publishers that “search traffic is no longer a given” in the age of artificial intelligence.

François Godard, senior analyst at consulting firm Enders, explains: "The future of Eurosport without the backing of a major streaming platform or a global group like Warner seems difficult to me. Eurosport, despite its name, has always been a network of national channels that are quite different from each other (Eurosport Germany is very different from Eurosport Italy), even if they are united by some important rights, such as the Olympics. I would bet on Eurosport being sold piecemeal to national operators. In Italy, for example, Discovery is potentially of interest to Sky Italia."