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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

In a soft market for both consumer and B2B, service revenue trends continue to be dominated by in-contract price increase dynamics.

VodafoneThree’s launch signalled a cautious tone about prospects for mobile growth, presumably allowing for a degree of integration disruption.

VodafoneThree and VMO2 traded 79 MHz of usable spectrum, leaving VodafoneThree in a strong position spectrum-wise, albeit with some challenges given that its merger conditions reduce flexibility in its coverage approach.

Gill Hind, of Enders Analysis, said: “A lot of the news out in the US is very, very biased. And for people that are interested in what’s happening, not just in the US but globally, there’ll be a lot of news on the BBC that you wouldn’t get on things such as Fox.

“So if you actually want to have a greater understanding of what’s happening on the world scene and also how the US has been seen by others, then actually something like the BBC is the most obvious channel to go towards.”

 

Karen Egan, at Enders Analysis, says: “It will be worrying [the Government] because they do have a high proportion of vulnerable customers.

“I think there’s a fear of a lot of disruption, but in the case of TalkTalk there’s a lot of ways they can ensure the service doesn’t ever go down.”

Potential options include a “supplier of last resort” scenario, similar to the one used in the energy sector. This would see a trusted larger player, such as BT, appointed to take over TalkTalk’s customer base should it collapse.

Alternatively, the Government could intervene to prop up the company for a limited period, giving customers time to switch to a different provider of their choosing.

It will also, says Enders Analysis analyst François Godard, position RTL as the “unavoidable” partner for streamers looking to launch, or expand, in Europe’s largest TV market.

“HBO Max is launching in Germany next year; they won’t be able to do it alone,” says Godard. “The logical move now would be for them to partner with RTL/Sky. Disney+ needs growth [in Germany]. Bundling with RTL would make sense.”

While RTL focused on the importance of the Sky deal for its German streaming business, Godard noted that the push to consolidate is also driven by competition in the advertising market. “The streamers have begun carrying ads, competing with the traditional broadcasters,” he notes, “and YouTube, of course, is a huge threat for them.”

Francois Godard, an analyst at Enders Analysis, said Sky had struggled in Germany with market share languishing around 10pc.

Mr Godard said that earlier valuations of Sky Deutschland had been based on “magic growth ... Of course, that did not happen”.

He added: “Germany has always been different from the UK. They never reached the kind of penetration they had in the UK.”

Comcast is selling Sky Deutschland to RTL Group, for a €150 million cash consideration, but with a performance-dependent variable of up to €377 million

In a fluid but competitive German market, RTL vies for leadership

Having turned Sky Deutschland around, this divestment allows Sky to be much more focused on core regions with more diversified businesses

According to François Godard, an analyst at Enders Analysis, one option would be to establish a system of progressive amounts over two years, with a sharing of profits and risks. In return, Canal+ could commit to marketing attractive packages, bundled with the rest of its content.

"The bundle is the essential criterion for a good commercial launch: finding all the matches in the same place, as well as entertainment programs to limit cancellations during the year, and especially in the summer," emphasizes the expert.