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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

Instead, Amazon Prime retained its first-pick packages in the UK, Germany and Italy – via separate auctions – and Canal+ and Movistar got all the matches in France and Spain respectively. “The global deal is the dog that didn’t bark,” François Godard, a senior media analyst for Enders Analysis, says. “The big tech firms clearly weren’t that interested. Sport is not going global.”

Godard says it points to other rights holders continuing with a market-by-market sales approach. Recent trends are mixed, with Fifa selling global rights to Dazn for the Club World Cup this year but Apple TV and Major League Soccer agreeing this month to terminate their 10-year global deal three years early.

"Pressures from big platforms, AI, Publicis’s winning streak and the Omnicom-IPG mega-merger are sucking the tide out on agency group operations that are seen as subscale or unable to keep pace."

"This is where Dentsu comes in: the rationale for maintaining its international operations as-is looks difficult today. Revenues are declining, Europe has tiny operating margins compared to Japan and Asia-Pacific is negative. Tight control from Japan appears to have hampered the international subsidiaries’ potential. So you have a situation where the scale and momentum is not there for Dentsu to effectively compete with Publicis, Omnicom or WPP on a global level and its international operations seem to be a drag on an otherwise leading position in Japan."

Regulators should consider that the Telegraph has been “a stranded asset,” for several years, said Claire Enders, a media analyst and founder of Enders Analysis.

“A good outcome is that we don’t have any foreign interference,” said Tilbian of the current bid.

“It’s a case of industrial logic,” said Enders, forecasting operational synergies of £40 million to £50 million annually if a deal goes through, while the newsrooms would likely stay untouched.

“There is no other buyer than DMGT at £500 million,” Enders said, referring to the minimum requested price for the asset. “There is a face-saving dimension to this bid.”

New research from Enders Analysis shows that UK altnets increased their collective losses to GBP 1.5 billion in 2024, driven by lower ARPUs and rising operating costs. The report warns that UK altnets are suffering from an "unpayable" rising interest burden, where even the best performing networks are struggling to break even at an EBITDA level. They are failing to generate sufficient margins to cover ongoing investment in customer acquisition - leading to a constant "cash drain" for investors.

The report warns of a "worsening" short-term impact on the rest of the fibre network industry as prices fall. However, Enders Analysis expects this to speed up an "inevitable consolidation" into a sustainable wholesale market model under Virgin Media O2/nexfibre and CityFibre.

This is not a new concern; we have been debating the plight of the altnet for some time. But new figures from Enders Analysis show that altnets' overall accounting net losses widened to £1.5 billion in 2024 from £1.3 billion a year earlier. Things are getting worse.

Or as James Barford, Head of Telecoms at Enders Analysis, put it in a social media post on Monday, "failing operating models mean that understandable early stage 'start-up' losses have migrated to growing and persistent ongoing losses."

Altnet losses expanded to £1.5 billion in 2024, according to a new annual report by Enders Analysis. Research found that alternative fibre network providers faced a tough adverse conditions as earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortisation (EBITDA) losses continued while interest charges and operating costs rose sharply, but the average revenue per user fell. It stated, “The increasing interest burden [is] looking unpayable under any reasonable scenario”.

The report noted that even the best performers struggle to break even before EBITDA breakeven and there are not sufficient margins to invest in customer acquisition, “resulting in a perpetual cash drain for their investors”.

Enders Analysis have warned quite starkly about the unsustainable losses incurred by alternative network operators challenging incumbent Openreach and others on full fibre rollout. In their report titled “UK Altnets: Something’s got to give” they highlight some of the key challenges faced by altnets in the wider competitive landscape.

“Altnet losses expanded to £1.5bn in 2024, as EBITDA losses persisted and interest costs rose sharply, with ARPUs weakening and operating costs stubbornly high, and the increasing interest burden looking unpayable under any reasonable scenario.

Even the best performing altnets can barely make EBITDA breakeven, and not make sufficient margins to cover ongoing customer acquisition investment, resulting in a perpetual cash drain for their investors.

DMGT proposes to acquire Telegraph Media Group (TMG) after RedBird Capital pulled its bid. 

TMG has a pristine balance sheet and is ready to be sold by RedBird IMI for the reserve price of £500 million to DMGT.

Lacklustre results for the topline in 2024 are partly due to the lengthy period of limbo since May 2023, but EBITDA is steady at £61 million.

“All things lead to some sort of innate quality or relevance relative to other production markets,” says Tom Harrington, at Enders Analysis.

“You would assume that the near universality of the English language drives it – and it can’t not be helpful, but it’s more than that.”

“Everyone is already making less content and consolidation will only add to this downward trend in production volumes – nobody merges to spend more,” says Harrington.

Harrington is sceptical about how much money UK producers can make through this strategy.

“The one rule of TV is that no one knows if something will be a success, let alone if they will then buy a T-shirt,” he says.