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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

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Trump II is already proving to be a more serious threat to an independent, robust news media than Trump I.

Trump’s direct power around news media is limited, but the threat comes from an unprecedented politicisation of federal regulators, enforcement and procurement—to favour friends and punish enemies.

Opposition to Trump II is weaker and more divided than the broad ‘resistance’ to Trump I. Big tech companies are going for a close embrace, hoping to steer policy to their advantage—while others bend the knee to avoid punishment.

“The bid won’t succeed, it’s not designed to succeed,” says François Godard, a market analyst with London-based Enders Analysis, who argues MFE would prefer to wait until Pro7 sheds some of its noncore assets — the company is trying to offload its ecommerce and online dating ventures — before buying the network outright. “But MFE will eventually take control of Pro7. At the European level, consolidation is inevitable.”

“Ad revenue can help subsidize lower subscription fees or bring a newsletter into profit,” said Jamie MacEwan, senior research analyst at Enders Analysis. “At the same time there’s never been more competition in the newsletter market, so there is pressure to remove restrictions any of these authors may be feeling, as we’ve seen with Beehiiv’s recent introduction of ads.”

“Newsletters may be a small part of the ads market, but they can provide an attractive option to up-market or B2B advertisers, as audiences tend to be more affluent and feel a strong connection to the author and the topic, which is presented in a premium context,” MacEwan said.

The move comes as altnets, whose networks now cover about 40 per cent of the country according to consultancy Enders, have stepped up their hunt for financing and deals. 

Karen Egan, head of telecoms at Enders, estimated that Connexin’s shareholder, asset manager Patrizia, would take a 1.5 per cent stake in CityFibre as part of the agreement. Patrizia did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Most regulations within the TAR26 condoc were continuations of the previous pro-investment regulations, albeit with little progress made on copper withdrawal, no extra help for the struggling altnets and a number of unexpected twists at the margin. 

Within the detail, the most significant hit is the return of cost-based price controls to some leased line charges, and across all of the proposed changes, Openreach has on balance fared worse than retail ISPs, albeit at a scale that is manageable within the BT Group.

Ofcom showed no inclination to offer any extra help to the struggling altnet industry, regarding its inefficiencies as being its own (and its investors’) problem, with consolidation the only sensible path forward for most.

Enders Analysis published a report on the state of UK podcasting this week, which estimated the UK podcast ad market is worth about £70m. “We are not yet at a point where the size of the market in the UK is proportionate to the size of the market in the US,” Pastor said. “Their population may be five times ours. The size of their advertising budgets are many more than five times greater. We’re still playing catch-up.”

Enders said: “The industry remains small overall, with podcasts treated as a slice of advertisers’ audio budgets, currently limiting growth and resulting in overall revenue representing a tiny part of the audio advertising pie, at around £70m compared to the £738m spent on radio last year.” However, Enders added: “An industry move into video – on both YouTube and Spotify – offers substantial reach and monetisation opportunities.”

François Godard at Enders Analysis said the tournament had proved a “hard sell” to both traditional broadcasters and streamers, and that the DAZN deal was the “best Fifa could get” after pressure from participating clubs to lock something in. “The Club World Cup has a grand name, but it looks more like a promotional event,” said Godard.