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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

  • The three lockdowns since Q1 2020 shifted the sales of ‘non-essential’ stores (e.g. clothes) to online, with deconfinement releasing the oxygen of pent-up demand to the high street, eroding online’s share
  • For vendors of ‘essential’ goods (e.g. food and drink), which stayed open, Work-From-Home (WFH) shifted a large portion of spend to in-home purchases, with both offline and online spend remaining elevated in Q2
  • The share of online in retail sales (excluding fuels) dropped from its peak of 34.7% in Q1 2021, when the UK was in its third lockdown, to 27.6% in Q2. This is still up 10 ppts from 18.7% in Q2 2019, evidence of a new post-pandemic normal, as mobility to retail and recreation destinations remains impaired

ITV: Back to 2019

2 August 2021

ITV’s H1 advertising revenues were up 29% YoY—and up 2% compared to 2019—to £866 million, with the Euros and an improving market ushering in the biggest June ever for the broadcaster. Studios revenues rose 26% (to £798 million), which was 5% better than 2019

ITV’s new deal with Sky provides clarity around the relationship between the two companies, with ITV soon able to dynamically serve ads on both downloaded content and linear channels (i.e. via Sky Adsmart) on Sky Q. By the end of 2022, the full ITV Hub app will be available on Sky Q

BritBox—which was not part of the Sky deal—has shown muted growth in the UK (adding 55k in H1 to 555k subscribers), while over the same period, international subscriptions lifted 18% (to 2 million)

Vodafone’s growth this quarter was a touch disappointing; the annualistion of the COVID hit was a clear boost but no evidence of any tailwinds. The 1.1% growth in the European markets should be the real focus for investors.

We see some evidence of positive initiatives from Vodafone such as its new EVO tariffs in the UK but it still has much to prove on operating momentum, especially in Germany.

There are signs that Vodafone is slow-pedalling in some markets and with demanding EBITDA targets and with leverage still finely balanced, we expect this focus on profitability to continue. The UK may be a special case.

Epic Games, maker of mega-hit Fortnite, sued Apple over alleged antitrust violations around App Store rules and Apple’s 30% tax on in-app transactions. A decision could come soon, though it will be contested on appeal.

The implications of the case could be far-reaching, as Apple and other tech companies like Google design their platforms to extract high-margin revenue from the transactions they facilitate, including news subscriptions: a five-year basic in-app subscription to The Times costs £885, of which Apple takes £158. 

It comes in the context of a flurry of debate and decisions around tech antitrust and consumer protection: new laws may ultimately be needed, but regulators in the US and UK are proving they can be creative with their existing tools. 

Tom said "The BBC shares the TV rights to the Six Nations rugby with ITV and co-produces dramas with the American streaming services - that is what it has to do now."

He added "The BBC is not getting any more money, but the cost [of acquiring rights and making programmes] is getting more expensive. It can only deliver less when the income from the [157.50] annual licence fee is the same."

Francois said “Nothing catastrophic, but it's a return to reality. It is obvious that growth was going to slow down after last year's boom. Demand is not infinitely expandable: in the United States, Netflix is ​​already very present while in Europe, the potential is lower. The whole question is whether they can still invest so heavily in content in the future, given this slower growth."

He added "Netflix seems to have reached the saturation of its market in the United States", adds Eric Haggstrom, analyst at eMarketer, quoted by AFP, noting that "Netflix has lost significant market share against Disney."

Gill said “If they don’t stick to [the guidelines], they might lose the compensation they get when production is delayed, and they are sort of incentivized to stick to those. If you are not actually sticking to the guidelines, you probably lose that compensation.”

She added “So people are going to be able to come back to work pretty quickly. And if you are immediately off, then your colleagues don’t get infected with it. So I think the industry has done pretty well.”

Viewing habits are changing but live is still central to the TV experience

Television’s biggest shows are amongst the most timeshifted, and therefore have an outsized impact on the decline of live viewing debate

Viewing—not just of news and sport—is still overwhelmingly live, despite differences across genres and broadcasters