Homepage

Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

This report is free to access

Trump II is already proving to be a more serious threat to an independent, robust news media than Trump I.

Trump’s direct power around news media is limited, but the threat comes from an unprecedented politicisation of federal regulators, enforcement and procurement—to favour friends and punish enemies.

Opposition to Trump II is weaker and more divided than the broad ‘resistance’ to Trump I. Big tech companies are going for a close embrace, hoping to steer policy to their advantage—while others bend the knee to avoid punishment.

Hamish Low, an analyst at the research firm Enders Analysis, told Business Insider that the "macro uncertainty" triggered by Trump's administration would weigh on tech companies.

He said it would make investors more serious about the "questions that were already growing" about Big Tech's major bets and their potential for returns.

"Impressive capabilities at the frontier of research aren't translating into either people's experiences of AI products or the kinds of returns that match the investments going in," Low told BI.

Analysts at the media consultancy Enders Analysis have said that a possible ITV restructuring would be “largely based on the release of overlooked value, if the constituted parts were judged on their own merits”.

In a note released this month, they said: “This latent value would have to more than compensate any lost benefit that ITV receives from the current integration of Studios.

“This is not insubstantial: over 60 per cent of ITV viewing is of ITV Studios and Sports content and about half of ITV’s content budget crosses to Studios, a proportion which has grown over the past decade.

“In turn, domestically, ITV is ITV Studios’ biggest customer — given that almost all the Studios programming that is bought by ITV is local — it can be estimated that around 74 per cent of Studios’ UK revenues come from ITV.”

“Building up more direct response spend is a sensible approach to address more sources of demand, increase the number of advertisers, and be more resilient during the next period of ads slowdown,” suggested Jamie MacEwan, senior research analyst at Enders Analysis. Analysts like MacEwan will be eagerly listening to hear what Snapchat is doing to combat this issue and keep revenue growing during this tumultuous time.

“We’ll be looking at what product changes like Simple Snapchat mean for ad load, which has historically been low compared to Meta or TikTok,” MacEwan said.

It’s been about monetizing it. Unless that changes, MacEwan said “Snap will continue to fall far short of market-leading ARPU at Meta and Google.”

Karen Egan, head of telecoms at research firm Enders Analysis, said the hands of MVNOs had been strengthened over recent years due to the shift to sim-only services, struggling network operators “very keen to give them favourable terms”, and the cost of living crisis.

 “Companies with existing strong retail distribution systems are particularly well positioned to perform strongly in the MVNO market,” she added.

Research from Enders showed that 2024 was the first year in history when the UK network operators lost contract subscribers, while by contrast MVNOs added 1.6mn.

“Much of this success can, of course, be attributed to the accessibility of the English language, which is a unifying force as a second language in much of the world and in most of the intense subscriber-growth areas,” wrote Enders Analysis head of television Tom Harrington.

However, he added that, given an estimated 40% of Netflix’s user base would likely view UK programming with local-language dubbing or subtitles, there is “something innate in the shows that makes them comparatively more attractive to the global Netflix view than content from other countries.

“Perhaps British exceptionalism in terms of the quality of its television product is not as over-egged as it has usually appeared.”

The United States’ America First policy rebalances the terms of trade with allies and the UK aims to secure an exemption to restore the status quo ante on tariffs

The UK is offering a deal to the United States on digital services sold in the UK that seems easier than a deal on US food products that do not meet UK regulations

The UK will have to give on the Digital Services Tax (DST) of 2% on “digital services revenues” (applied to Amazon, Apple, eBay, Meta, and Google) and soften the regulations and enforcement of Acts of Parliament