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Rigorous Fearless Independent

Julian said “It’s difficult to see how the Premier League can conjure a situation where it’s more attractive for them to pay more money. Maybe they can keep it flat, but BT always talk of going ‘flat to down’ when they have their calls.  I would imagine, realistically, that it’s going down in value because it’s been at such a high.” He declined to put an exact figure on the potential fall, but sources close to talks said “up to 15 per cent is realistic”.

He added “Football is still by far and away the most important sport for the broadcasters to have in the UK, particularly with something like the Premier League, which has a much more elevated status than any other competition. That’s by far and away better protected, but that’s not to say the rights won’t decline in value.”

Tom says the use case for Quibi was not proven before launch. Unlike other streaming newcomers, Quibi launched with a completely new kind of content. “They spent an immense amount on content, but never really knew if it was going to work.” 

He added “They have put their entire company behind this.”  

WMG IPO: A bet on streaming

16 September 2020

Investors warmly welcomed WMG's IPO of non-voting shares in March, valuing the company at $12.8bn, a 388% increase in the company's valuation since Len Blavatnik acquired it in 2011

Investors are placing a bet on music streaming. WMG's strength in the US market due to R&B and Hip-hop in its catalogue allowed it to outperform UMG and Sony on recorded music over 2015-19, an advantage that will dissipate when growth shifts to emerging markets

COVID-19 impacts explains WMG’s 6% decline in recorded music revenues for calendar Q2 2020, despite an 8% rise in digital revenue, as revenues from physical sales (vinyl and CD) sank, and also those from artist services due to the halted 2020 live music season

EE has announced the ending of its relationship with Carphone Warehouse, hot on the heels of a similar announcement from O2 a few months ago and the recent closure of Carphone Warehouse high-street stores.

Representing less than a third of the market gross adds, Carphone Warehouse is going to struggle to be viewed as a true comparison distribution channel. Its future probably lies elsewhere.

The closure of Carphone Warehouse stores, and now the diminished appeal of its website/off-high street stores, is positive for the operators.

Alice said “Politico’s iceberg model enables mass reach supported by digital advertising, but with Pro at the core — niche, B2B and targeted at industry professionals. In 2018, Pro subscriptions globally accounted for half of the revenues, but 0.1% of users. Solid growth and a premium audience will be attractive to advertisers.” 

Growth deteriorated by 3.5ppts, with the UK the weakest and Italy most robust thanks to its early onslaught of COVID-19, usage pickup in a largely pre-pay market and reprieve from a particularly competitive environment.

More operators (Orange and Telecom Italia) cut their guidance at the Q2 results and others (Deutsche Telekom and Iliad) sounded a note of caution regarding the likelihood of them reaching their full year targets.

The outlook for next quarter is mixed—roaming revenues will be even harder hit and competitive intensity is bouncing back but where usage has been depressed it will begin to recover well post-lockdown.