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Rigorous Fearless Independent

Of those updates, the most commonly talked about are TikTok’s Creativity Program Beta (which replaced the TikTok Creator Fund and the expansion of YouTube’s Partner Program (which replaced YouTube’s Shorts Fund) — both of which were specifically created to monetize short-form video. 

But the fact still stands: “[Creator funds] are a band-aid over the fact that short-form video is not monetized as effectively as long form on YouTube or the Instagram feed, so you need additional incentives for creators to support the newer product on your platform, as well as against your competitors,” said Jamie MacEwan, senior research analyst at Enders.

“It is a challenged market for sure,” says Douglas McCabe, the chief executive at Enders Analysis. “In terms of a print business, circulation has been falling away at rates of decline that are pretty worrying, volumes are probably down around 65% over the last 10 or 12 years.

“Publishers have some levers, increase cover price and reduce pagination, but it does feel like we are getting toward a period where the industrial scale of print is looking quite small and a lot less sustainable.”

He added “The scale of online audience is very impressive but they’ve not worked out how to retain usage and build value for users. The majority of sites are nowhere near monetising sustainably. The focus seems to be on getting as many eyeballs on a page as you can, but it needs to be about what is valuable.”

Microsoft and Google are both incorporating AI-powered chatbots into their core search offering. This will create a better user experience for some search categories earlier in the customer journey.

Search is a huge prize, bigger than TV advertising, and AI represents the biggest potential shakeup to that market since the rise of mobile. With ~95% market share outside China, Google's risk is to the downside.

Search is an early, but not the most natural, home for conversational AI: Microsoft and Google have also announced integrations into productivity software. Expect a wide range of services to be transformed by AI integrations as startups and tech giants alike seek share in newly contestable markets.

“What the Times has done so well with its games strategy to date is that it replicates some of the habit friendly elements of that traditional newspaper experience,” said Joseph Teasdale, head of tech at Enders Analysis. “Everyone gets the same experience around these games on a daily rhythm.”

He added “That’s the other thing about these games the Times is focused on, they’re super cheap. It’s a great return on investment when it comes to subscriber metrics and revenue. That calculation works really well compared to actually developing what people might think a game looks like nowadays.”

VMO2 and CityFibre are reportedly holding merger talks, which would bring together by far the two largest fibre builders competing with Openreach.

On a conventional altnet acquisition assessment, CityFibre is an attractive target given its scale, but a very expensive one at a full price given the degree of overlap.

The acquisition might still be attractive given the opportunity to take out a wholesale competitor but, for this same reason, regulatory clearance would be very tough.

Market revenue growth slowed to under 1% in Q4, driven by consumers economising in tough times through re-contracting and dropping add-ons.

Early 2023 is likely to be worse, with growth likely to turn negative again in Q1, again driven by ARPU with volumes more robust.

April price increases will give at least a temporary boost, but need to be managed very sensitively to avoid reputational damage and churn.

“I think Comcast overpaid for Sky and fantasized on very thin pan-European synergies and growth potential [but] selling a continental unit would not bring much cash in but it would send a signal to the stock market that they are serious about restructuring,” Enders Analysis analyst Francois Godard tells The Hollywood Reporter. Pointing to Sky Italia’s largely successful rollout of broadband services in Italy, Godard called the division “a solid asset. [So] why sell it at a discounted price?….I have seen no indication that Sky Italy would be up for sale. They are investing in telecoms, a long-term growth strategy consistent with the Comcast approach in the US and with Sky in the U.K.”

Sky’s Germany unit, which does not have a strong telecom or broadband component, looks more vulnerable.