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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

The Financial Times

31 October 2016

Douglas McCabe was quoted in an article on the future of newspapers. The dramatic events of this summer such as the UK’s referendum vote to leave the EU, and Donald Trump’s unconventional march on the White House boosted circulations across newspapers, from The Guardian and the New York Times to the Daily Mail. However, the surge was temporary and the outlook for print advertising has gone from bad to worse. Douglas said that print newspaper ad spending in the UK, for instance, is set to fall by £135m to £866m this year, even steeper than the £112m drop in 2015. He added “These are big numbers. This is not advertising that is going to come back.”

Financial Times

24 October 2016

Claire Enders was quoted in an article on the UK’s biggest joint advertising sales operation. Newspaper groups are moving further towards establishing a sales operation to combat the sharp fall in print revenues. National newspaper publishers met this month and agreed an extended period of research into how they can work together more closely and share costs. However, even if newspaper owners signed off on the joint sales plan, it would be unlikely to launch before 2018 as publishers seek to avoid intervention from regulators which would cause further delays or kill the idea altogether. Claire said “People have to think long and hard about a CMA process that will delay the activation of costs sharing and cost cutting measures that are essential for the industry to have a long-term future.

2017 has started well as group revenues grew by 5% on a like-for-like constant currency basis and operating costs were 2% lower year-on-year

The outlook for continuing strong revenue growth in the coming quarters is very positive in light of the numerous and ongoing product and service synergies in all three Sky markets

Cord-cutting is now a major concern in the US; however, there is no evidence for it with respect to Sky operations in Germany & Austria and Italy, while the evidence from the UK & Ireland is so far inconclusive. We expect some to occur, but not on the scale seen in the US

Google’s recent hardware launch event was a confident assertion of an AI-led future where Google’s services are present for everyone, everywhere

With Google’s Assistant central to them, devices like the Pixel phone and Google Home smart speaker put pressure on Samsung, Apple and Amazon

If Google’s AI push is successful, it will evolve and strengthen the company’s role as a gatekeeper to content and services, fundamentally reshaping search marketing

Personal data is the fuel of the digital age and the UK is a top producer due to deep internet and ecommerce usage

The EU’s General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), a key plank of the Digital Single Market (DSM), will directly apply in May 2018, before the date of Brexit in 2019

Upon Brexit, GDPR adoption would ensure easy certification by the Commission for data transfers outside the EU, giving companies another reason to stay in the UK 

With the decline in its subscriber base accelerating and following an antitrust veto over its planned tie up with BeIN Sports, Canal+ has decided to radically restructure its retailing on IPTV – where over 60% of subscriber recruitment takes place 

The basic channel package is now wholesale to ISPs and included in upper tier triple play bundles – much higher volumes should more than balance a deep price cut. Soon premium and optional packages are to be unbundled on all platforms to create cheaper entry points and favour subscriber customisation

Canal+ is thus increasingly focused on supplying premium content, leaving the user interface to ISPs. Without the scale of other international content producers and in a nationalistic political context, we believe that this market rationale will eventually lead Vivendi to sell Canal+ to Orange

Brexit will take place in March 2019 and the rush is now on to complete the UK’s exit through Article 50 negotiations and set the framework for post-Brexit trade with the EU

Trade-related investment by companies is at high risk from uncertainty; a free-trade area (FTA) for manufactured products should be a priority for 2019

Barriers to trade in services in the EU are more nebulous than tariffs and far more political in Member States, justifying a Comprehensive Economic Partnership (CEP)

A lacklustre UK launch of Viceland—the new, multinational linear television channel from youth-skewing, gonzo-esque Vice Media—followed six months after a similarly underwhelming entrance into the US

It is surely early days, but despite strong content, the initial results were predictable, considering the challenges. The response by Vice, that viewing figures are essentially immaterial to its plans, was expected but deviated from earlier, bullish sentiments

Beyond linear viewing, as an intended mass “content generator” to power the greater Vice online network, Viceland may answer a fundamental question: Is Vice and its distinctive content really what the kids want?

The Times

3 October 2016

Thomas Caldecott was quoted in an article on the parent company of the Telegraph Media Group which has paid its owners a dividend of £150 million while swinging to a big loss, heightening speculation that its owners, Sir Frederick Barclay and his twin brother, Sir David, may be preparing a sale of the newspaper group. Thomas said the Telegraph group was financially robust. However, it had been forced to cut costs and was arriving at a point where it could not extract overheads without compromising the quality of the product.