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François Godard, Senior Media and Telecoms Analyst at Enders Analysis, explains Netflix's success with the platform's market power: “Only Netflix can publish a series that the whole world is talking about. The others need the cinema for that.” The streaming providers don’t have to lure viewers into the movie theater with their productions, but rather just to pick up the remote control on the couch. “Netflixen” has even made it into the dictionary as a verb for an evening of film and television.

While there used to be months between the cinema premiere and release on DVD, Bluray or streaming portals, it is now only weeks or days - if at all. “The cinema releases have become shorter and shorter,” says analyst Godard. And that's a problem for movie theaters.

‘The need for expensive content to cut through immediately is huge,’ says Tom Harrington of industry specialist Enders Analysis. UK broadcasters’ budgets are increasingly being squeezed by falling ad revenue and a frozen licence fee. 

The financial pressures have meant fewer commissions overall, with a headline in the industry journal Broadcast in January saying they had fallen ‘across the board’ in 2023. When commissioners do green-light a project, they are playing it safe. ‘[They know] sequels, spinoffs and reboots are successful, so each year there’s a doubling down,’ says Harrington. 

‘TV is no different, thanks to international streamers and algorithms. But it’s not just the streamers – the BBC relaunching Gladiators or ITV commissioning regular true-crime dramas is the same on a smaller scale.’

One reason, according to Gareth Sutcliffe of analytical company Enders Analysis, is that although “all of these games companies are inherently profitable, what happened during the pandemic is that they went on kind of a hiring binge and the cost of labour during that period was really, really high.

“They were paying over and above the odds for developer talent; for engineering talent; for all of the kind of stuff that was used to make games and so what we're now getting is a correction.”

One clear problem with The Way is that it just didn’t belong on BBC One, points out Tom Harrington, head of television at media experts Enders Analysis. “The Way’s major hindrance is that it is not really a BBC One drama – its tone and intent is more in line with what you would have expected from BBC Two.” With fewer original BBC dramas being commissioned – the broadcaster’s original television budget was cut by close to £100m over the past 12 months as part of a commissioning freeze – “almost everything now gets put on the main channel and has the ratings expectations that come with that.”

“Canal could separate its distribution and publishing activities [for the channels in question, Editor's note], as it did for the Canal+ channel after the 1986 law and for years. In fact, the 20% is not a determining obstacle,” explains Philippe Bailly, founder of NPA Conseil. “And, more precisely, one could imagine a new South African entity being created which would be listed in the country. The law could also change, which the local press does not rule out,” adds François Godard, analyst at Enders. A solution which would be compatible with Canal's desire to have a listing in Johannesburg.

Africa is one of the engines of growth for the encrypted chain. “This would be Canal’s biggest acquisition in at least two decades,” observes François Godard.

Meanwhile, concerns over the future of traditional TV are weighing on the shares. Analysis by research firm Enders found that broadcast TV viewing fell 3%, to two hours 28 minutes per person a day, in 2023 compared with the previous year. Younger audiences were down 80% on pre-pandemic levels.

Karen Egan, head of mobile at Enders Analysis, warns VMO2 faces a “tricky” year ahead. 

“On both mobile and fixed the company had significant advantages in the market for a long time – custom plans on mobile and very high speeds on fixed,” she says.

“Those advantages are now largely eroded, making it much more difficult to make headway in the market.”

“Liberty Global tends to take a very financially pragmatic approach to businesses – they don’t let sentimentality get in the way of a good deal,” says Egan.



“Telefonica is likely to have a more strategic view of the UK business, something that aligns well with their other operations around the world.”