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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

"the reality is that Nvidia will dominate the AI accelerator market for the foreseeable future," particularly as "the wave of AI capex" expected from tech firms in 2025 will ensure it remains "the big winner" in the absence of strong competition.

"AMD is a ways behind and none of the hyperscaler chips are going to be matching that kind of volume, which gives Nvidia some breathing room in terms of market share," 

"however, there's another reality Nvidia must reckon with. "The challenge is the sheer weight of investor expectations due to the scale and premium that Nvidia has reached, where anything less than continually flying past every expectation is a disappointment," 

Under financial stress, most streaming platforms are increasingly focusing on third-party distribution. Thanks to bundling, top streamers like Netflix can increase the lifetime value of subscribers, while smaller streamers widen their reach.

Bundles of streamers may have some potential in the US, but in Europe—with Netflix not interested—they do not have the necessary scale.

This trend towards bundling favours incumbent pay-TV aggregators like Sky and Canal+, but in the longer run they face competition from tech video marketplaces.

“Sky was always going to be looking for a stringent and long-term wholesale access arrangement as it will be many years before its agreement with O2 expires, and Sky would like to be able to secure even better terms when it does”, said Karen

“ Our view is that the merger will be good for MVNOs as Three has not really been a serious network of consideration for big MVNO moves, so its loss will not impact them. What does matter in terms of MVNOs getting good wholesale rates is the amount of capacity in the market and that will increase by 30% on the basis of our estimates, putting downward pressure on wholesale rates. ”

“From a monetisation angle, the costs of this content is so high that it wouldn’t be possible for Netflix to just include it in the main offering,” explains Tom Harrington, analyst at Enders Analysis. “That means it would need to create special sports add-on packages which subscribers would have to pay for. This would be a major shift for a business like Netflix.”

Of course, they would say that. But it makes sense to strengthen a well-established sports brand, says Adam Dalrymple, of the media pulse-takers Enders Analysis. Its recent report showed TV sport viewing was relatively robust: while broadcast TV figures had plummeted by 26% since 2015, sports viewing was down just 3%. “Every media company is grappling with the digital transition,” Dalrymple says. “But Match of the Day has a head start because it already has a digital home.”

 

Having tools like this is another way for TikTok to try to reassure smaller advertisers, who already manage Google and Meta spend and have limited marketing teams, that they can multi-home on TikTok without paying an enormous price in time or effort, explained Jamie MacEwan, senior research analyst at Enders Analysis.

“It’s really important given how much Reels and Shorts have grown, and the fact that Meta and Google are continually improving their tools that convert creative across a range of formats, including short-form video,” he added. “These advertisers tend to focus more on immediate ROI, so the hope will be that reducing upfront costs can give them more leeway on their bids for clicks and impressions.”

Disney believes it has turned a corner, laying out positive forecasts for the next two years, featuring annual, double-digit EPS growth. Streaming is now reliably profitable, although its low and generally inert ARPU will inevitably have to be stoked by more price rises

In the UK, Disney+ continues to trail Netflix in a number of core metrics—reach, engagement and habituality—but Rivals signals the potential of a positive trajectory

Similarly, although Disney's relatively patchy theatrical release schedule has had an effect on Disney+, a strong next six months should flow through to service growth

Vodafone’s Q2 performance was in line with the company’s guidance on almost every metric and was always going to be a tough one given the hit from TV losses in Germany and the annualisation of price increases there

The share price reaction (-6%) is likely a reflection of fears around Vodafone’s ability to improve underlying operational performance in Germany. Whilst this remains a valid concern, there is nothing in these results to amplify our worries on the issue

Escalating competitive pressure in German mobile is, however, a threat to the company’s growth outlook, and Vodafone’s promise to be “disciplined” in its approach to it may turn out to be too conservative a strategy