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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

The idea of ​​connection at the heart of social networks has indeed moved towards private circles, which are more difficult to monetize. And competition to Messenger and WhatsApp is fierce, especially among young people where services like Discord and BeReal are increasingly popular. “The great strength of Facebook was the control of the 'social graph': 2 billion normal people produced content about their lives for their friends and families. They didn't need to be paid for and they didn't unionize. But today, the model has changed: on TikTok, you don't find the people you know, but the best creatives ,” notes Joseph Teasdale.

Q4 results were resilient on the top line and stellar at the EBITDA level with mobile compensating for pressures elsewhere, although the company has warned of a tough first quarter 2023 before recovery

Steps are being taken to improve the prospects of the fixed business but they will take time to bear fruit and there may be rocky times in the process, notably the spring price increases this year                                                  

2023 looks set to be a strong year financially, even if some KPIs remain challenging, with the structure of the nexfibre deal flattering the longer-term picture

Jon Steinberg has been announced as the new CEO of Future, one of the most hotly anticipated executive appointments in UK media, succeeding Zillah Byng-Thorne, who has turned a publishing basket case into a digital powerhouse

Future’s new CEO will double down on US expansion, and take on the thorny challenge of transitioning female lifestyle content through the ecommerce utility funnel so successfully applied to tech and gaming

Steinberg’s appointment looks more evolution than revolution, cementing the transformation carved out by his predecessor, though his entrepreneurial experience may yet bring further innovation and M&A

Providing home broadband connections via a mobile network (FWA) is gaining traction in certain markets where local conditions make it a viable alternative to fibre, such as New Zealand, Italy and the US.

FWA is a time-limited opportunity for most, with mobile traffic growth absorbing capacity for it and fixed traffic growth depleting the economic case. An ultimate shift to fibre is the best exit strategy.

In the UK, H3G's spare capacity could support up to 1 million FWA customers on a ten-year view—enough for a meaningful revenue fillip for H3G, but not enough to seriously disrupt the fixed market.

Enders Analysis’ Tom Harrington described the price changes as the next evolution for Netflix’s pricing following the launch of cheap mobile-only plans in some international markets. “It’s the next step in creating a nuanced, bespoke approach to pricing on a country-by-country basis – a far cry from how the product was pitched after the global rollout stage, where in many countries it was extremely expensive, uncompetitive against very cheap local streamers and only accessible by (their words) ‘western-oriented elites’,” he told THR.

Consumer tech revenue growth ground to a halt by the end of 2022.

Changes in technology and user behaviour are creating risks for incumbents.

Shareholder pressure is driving efficiencies, but high costs are an inevitable response to growing challenges.