Homepage

Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

“Disney’s parks, cruises, theatre shows and merchandise is 30-40 per cent of revenue and a big majority of profits,” says Tom Harrington of industry experts Enders Analysis. Although Netflix is some way behind them, Disney, he says, “is the obvious North Star when it comes to creating entire worlds around IP creations and characters”. “In the US the company’s growth is now driven by getting existing subscribers to pay more – or getting freeloading users to pay for the first time – which will inevitably reach a ceiling,” explains Harrington. “Netflix needs to start building complementary businesses if it wants to keep an upward trajectory. These include gaming and advertising but also growing merchandising and experiences which if executed should only intensify fandom of its bigger brands and increase engagement.”

The EU is investigating Apple over its Digital Markets Act (DMA) compliance strategy, including its tight control over app distribution via the App Store. More open choices for apps would be a boon to media providers and consumers.

Apple is defending its ability to profit from its iPhone ecosystem, a vital principle for future growth. AI is also being dragged into the battle, as Europe misses out on Apple Intelligence, at least for now.

The EU legislated early and perhaps clumsily, but the rest of the world is matching the substance. The UK has just passed its new digital markets regulation, and mobile ecosystems will be a key early target for regulator scrutiny.

Service revenue growth was broadly flat at 1.7% as improvements in Germany offset weaknesses in Italy.

The impact of price increases has been mixed, with subscriber losses dulling their upside, and the mixed picture looks set to continue into Q2.

The market continues to be challenging with elevated competition at the low end, pressure from some regulators to increase network coverage, and a somewhat soft EBITDA outlook.

AI integration into production tools throughout media industries will deliver increased productivity for professional content creation. Generally available tools will also improve quality and production speed for individual user-creators.

Roadblocks include the uncertain copyright status of models and their outputs, attitudes of creative workers and consumers, and the AI tech underdelivering versus what was promised. The need to integrate new tools into existing processes is perhaps the biggest brake.

There are stark differences by sector: the opportunities are greatest in games, where costs have ballooned and software engineering is core. Marketing is furthest in exploiting AI, while audiovisual production is more cautious.

Recently many countries, particularly in Europe, have moved away from funding their public service broadcasters via a licence fee.

Three main models have been adopted in its place: a state grant system, a ring-fenced income tax, and a premises levy—nowhere has chosen to fund PSBs solely by subscription or advertising.

Outcomes vary: Germany shows that a successful transition relies on years of deliberation and consensus, whilst Italy and France underline the perils of insecure funding arrangements.

The Netomnia/Brsk merger will create the third largest UK altnet with 1.5 million homes passed in much the most significant altnet merger to date, combining two fast-growing, innovative challengers.

Both Netomnia and Brsk are burdened by eye-watering EBITDA losses; merger synergies alone are unlikely to solve this, with much more scale necessary, making further inorganic moves likely.

The merger creates an alternative prospect to the assumption that either CityFibre or VMO2/nexfibre will consolidate the market, but the combined group may prove more an enhanced target than an active acquirer.