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Francois Godard, an analyst at Enders Analysis, said Sky had struggled in Germany with market share languishing around 10pc.
Mr Godard said that earlier valuations of Sky Deutschland had been based on “magic growth ... Of course, that did not happen”.
He added: “Germany has always been different from the UK. They never reached the kind of penetration they had in the UK.”
Comcast is selling Sky Deutschland to RTL Group, for a €150 million cash consideration, but with a performance-dependent variable of up to €377 million
In a fluid but competitive German market, RTL vies for leadership
Having turned Sky Deutschland around, this divestment allows Sky to be much more focused on core regions with more diversified businesses
According to François Godard, an analyst at Enders Analysis, one option would be to establish a system of progressive amounts over two years, with a sharing of profits and risks. In return, Canal+ could commit to marketing attractive packages, bundled with the rest of its content.
"The bundle is the essential criterion for a good commercial launch: finding all the matches in the same place, as well as entertainment programs to limit cancellations during the year, and especially in the summer," emphasizes the expert.
"RTL has proven that it can drive momentum in the subscription market," said François Godard, an analyst at the British consulting firm Enders Analysis. He believes that Sky and RTL could become the most important TV providers in Germany.
The largest UK altnets are now all at or close to EBITDA positive, but still heavily cashflow negative even pre-interest costs and with paused builds, due to various below-the-line cash costs requiring continuous funding. EBITDA margins of as much as 35%+ are required to actually be cashflow breakeven.
Altnet economics are still challenging even if debts are fully written off, with a payback of more than 5 years on customer acquisition and connection costs alone.
The consolidation endgame is increasingly imminent, with the outcome likely to be a mix of CityFibre/VMO2 acquisitions, stand-alone niche players continuing, and abandoned assets, with the outcome for the rest of the sector more benign under any scenario than current trends.
Any actual enforcement isn’t pegged until 2026. The CMS has deliberately broken up its measures into three waves to speed up the first wave, said Jamie MacEwan, senior analyst at media analysis firm Enders. “It just goes to show how slow the regulatory process is compared to tech companies’ ability to iterate and transform their products at speed,” he said. “Google’s new products are already impacting publishers, and it is only likely to go further, so any delay could mean extra months adapting to a difficult operating environment.”
It’s a bit of a tight-rope walk for the CMA. “Finding a middle ground on things like fair ranking, the CMS could upset Google and publishers alike if it isn’t careful,” added MacEwan. “A key tension is between principles-based and outcomes-based regulation.”
This report tracks Netflix’s original content output, which declined in 2024: docuseries and stand-up comedy were the only genres that grew in volume
We provide an overview of what programming is working, by overlaying Netflix’s ‘mood tag’ and genre metadata onto global and UK viewing
We analyse Netflix’s approach to film and, in particular, the difference in output and success of more and less expensive features
Research by Enders Analysis showed that the UK’s network operators lost contract subscribers for the first time last year, while MVNOs gained 1.65 million.
The research specialist attributes the rise of virtual operators to the cost of living crisis and longer handset lifespans, which has increased demand for Sim-only contracts, “a traditional area of strength” for the MVNOs.
That being said, Tom Harrington, Enders Analysis Head of Television, pointed out that Netflix and TF1 have had a close relationship for some time.
He noted that TF1 boss Rodolphe Belmer used to sit on Netflix’s board and that the two companies are working on Tout Pour La Lumière, the streamer’s first daily drama series, or soap, in France, which was itself branded game-changing when unveiled late last year.
“[TF1] has also no doubt noticed the performance of some of its programming that has been licensed to Netflix compared to on [on-demand service] TF1+ – the ability of certain broadcaster content to find a new audience on Netflix and thrive has been a recurrent theme in most territories over the past decade,” he wrote. Only last year, we explored how the UK was experiencing a Suits effect as older, rather parochial British broadcaster shows found themselves being given a second lease of life on the Netflix most-watched list.