Homepage

Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

This makes it difficult to say whether The Rings Of Power will ever make a profit, according to Tom Harrington of media researchers Enders Analysis. 

'Given the structure of the streaming model, it is almost impossible to robustly attribute profitability to any single piece of content, unless a massive volume of incremental sign-ups that go straight to the show can be identified or there is a clear link between viewing of the program and other revenue streams. 

'Given the wild costs of Rings Of Power, subdued viewing figures (at least in the US and the UK), and the perennial inability of Amazon to create pathways between Prime Video and shopping, it's highly unlikely that Amazon is getting a strong return on its investment in the show.' 

“The Telegraph is a slightly odd commercial prospect because it has been in the Bardo – the place between death and rebirth – for years now,” Alice Enders, head of research at media analyst firm Enders Analysis, tells City AM. “Lloyds effectively took control of it in mid-2023, since when there has effectively been no owner.”

“The regulatory hurdles for any potential proprietor of a national news outlet are huge,” says Enders. “Ofcom takes these public interest tests super seriously. They take time. The Secretary of State and the regulator will need to make a decision, not just on the nominal owner, but also the individuals or institutions that are backing him or her.

“Indeed, the first aspect of that process will be Ofcom taking a very close look at the source of money that Efune – or whoever the successful suitor is – has compiled to make a bid.”

The Premier League’s international media rights are now worth more than the domestic rights, so taking over their sale “may be a clever move”, says Francois Godard of Enders Analysis, but he believes they still need broadcasters. 

“I don’t see D2C [direct to consumer] as the future of football. Maybe it’s an option you can use in certain markets” as leverage to derive bigger bids from media companies, he adds. 

Another major trend in US sports is for long-term partnerships between leagues and broadcasters, which encourage the latter to invest in promoting the former. 

“I don’t believe the NFL and NBA D2C platforms are a substitute for sales to broadcasters,” says Godard. “They are a nice tool and a way to reach core fans.” 

Research by Enders Analysis shows that between 2022 and 2023 the average age of Channel 4’s biggest hits was nine years. For ITV, this figure stood at 11.

Tom Harrington, the head of television at Enders Analysis, says: “This is one of those metrics that can be taken both ways. Reliance on older formats seems the antithesis of innovation. But at the same time, surely it’s a good thing if you have a show that commands strong audiences for 10-plus years?”

 

Europe is also expected to have its own M&A reckoning. “The climate calls for consolidation,” says François Godard, senior media and telecom analyst at Enders Analysis. 

But whereas studios such as Warner Bros. Discovery, Sony and Lionsgate are expected to be active in one way or another in the United States, across the pond the production sector is likely ground zero. “These producers in Europe have enjoyed the Golden Age of the past 10 years,” says the Italy-based Godard. “But it’s over.” 

 

"the reality is that Nvidia will dominate the AI accelerator market for the foreseeable future," particularly as "the wave of AI capex" expected from tech firms in 2025 will ensure it remains "the big winner" in the absence of strong competition.

"AMD is a ways behind and none of the hyperscaler chips are going to be matching that kind of volume, which gives Nvidia some breathing room in terms of market share," 

"however, there's another reality Nvidia must reckon with. "The challenge is the sheer weight of investor expectations due to the scale and premium that Nvidia has reached, where anything less than continually flying past every expectation is a disappointment," 

Under financial stress, most streaming platforms are increasingly focusing on third-party distribution. Thanks to bundling, top streamers like Netflix can increase the lifetime value of subscribers, while smaller streamers widen their reach.

Bundles of streamers may have some potential in the US, but in Europe—with Netflix not interested—they do not have the necessary scale.

This trend towards bundling favours incumbent pay-TV aggregators like Sky and Canal+, but in the longer run they face competition from tech video marketplaces.

“Sky was always going to be looking for a stringent and long-term wholesale access arrangement as it will be many years before its agreement with O2 expires, and Sky would like to be able to secure even better terms when it does”, said Karen

“ Our view is that the merger will be good for MVNOs as Three has not really been a serious network of consideration for big MVNO moves, so its loss will not impact them. What does matter in terms of MVNOs getting good wholesale rates is the amount of capacity in the market and that will increase by 30% on the basis of our estimates, putting downward pressure on wholesale rates. ”