Homepage

Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

Defined roles within the advertising ecosystem are a thing of the past: everyone is adapting by building out functionality to claim share as the constants underpinning advertising—attribution, discoverability, and regulation—change.

There is a new wave of M&A, partnerships and developments from agencies, adtech, and big tech in data and AI, as all sides position themselves to reshape the terms of online advertising at a time of maximum uncertainty.

Big tech platforms are leveraging their scale and AI investments in attempts to reset broad swathes of the market. Publishers are exposed; their way forward relies on asserting their value through direct audiences and collaboration on sector-wide innovations

Tom Harrington, a broadcast expert at the research firm Enders Analysis, says of YouTubing: “You’re completely at the whims of a platform, an algorithm that can change any time. If you do well, you do very, very well. And if you do badly, you do very, very badly, and no one ever sees your content. There’s incredible risk being on that platform and having your entire existence on that platform.”

Harrington thinks that many presenters would prefer the old, risk-free broadcast system, where they would accept payments upfront for commissions, rather than YouTube’s “performance-based” model. He adds: “It’s kind of precarious even for someone like him.”

“It’s a generational shift — text is less important [to young people] than video and audio,” says Douglas McCabe, chief executive and director of publishing at Enders Analysis. 

Tech is also a problem for parents, says Douglas. “They are not modelling great reading habits because they’re always on their phones. They are also more likely to put kids on a device. There is a decline in parents reading to children.”

 

In a soft market for both consumer and B2B, service revenue trends continue to be dominated by in-contract price increase dynamics.

VodafoneThree’s launch signalled a cautious tone about prospects for mobile growth, presumably allowing for a degree of integration disruption.

VodafoneThree and VMO2 traded 79 MHz of usable spectrum, leaving VodafoneThree in a strong position spectrum-wise, albeit with some challenges given that its merger conditions reduce flexibility in its coverage approach.

Gill Hind, of Enders Analysis, said: “A lot of the news out in the US is very, very biased. And for people that are interested in what’s happening, not just in the US but globally, there’ll be a lot of news on the BBC that you wouldn’t get on things such as Fox.

“So if you actually want to have a greater understanding of what’s happening on the world scene and also how the US has been seen by others, then actually something like the BBC is the most obvious channel to go towards.”

 

Karen Egan, at Enders Analysis, says: “It will be worrying [the Government] because they do have a high proportion of vulnerable customers.

“I think there’s a fear of a lot of disruption, but in the case of TalkTalk there’s a lot of ways they can ensure the service doesn’t ever go down.”

Potential options include a “supplier of last resort” scenario, similar to the one used in the energy sector. This would see a trusted larger player, such as BT, appointed to take over TalkTalk’s customer base should it collapse.

Alternatively, the Government could intervene to prop up the company for a limited period, giving customers time to switch to a different provider of their choosing.

It will also, says Enders Analysis analyst François Godard, position RTL as the “unavoidable” partner for streamers looking to launch, or expand, in Europe’s largest TV market.

“HBO Max is launching in Germany next year; they won’t be able to do it alone,” says Godard. “The logical move now would be for them to partner with RTL/Sky. Disney+ needs growth [in Germany]. Bundling with RTL would make sense.”

While RTL focused on the importance of the Sky deal for its German streaming business, Godard noted that the push to consolidate is also driven by competition in the advertising market. “The streamers have begun carrying ads, competing with the traditional broadcasters,” he notes, “and YouTube, of course, is a huge threat for them.”