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“Canal could separate its distribution and publishing activities [for the channels in question, Editor's note], as it did for the Canal+ channel after the 1986 law and for years. In fact, the 20% is not a determining obstacle,” explains Philippe Bailly, founder of NPA Conseil. “And, more precisely, one could imagine a new South African entity being created which would be listed in the country. The law could also change, which the local press does not rule out,” adds François Godard, analyst at Enders. A solution which would be compatible with Canal's desire to have a listing in Johannesburg.

Africa is one of the engines of growth for the encrypted chain. “This would be Canal’s biggest acquisition in at least two decades,” observes François Godard.

Meanwhile, concerns over the future of traditional TV are weighing on the shares. Analysis by research firm Enders found that broadcast TV viewing fell 3%, to two hours 28 minutes per person a day, in 2023 compared with the previous year. Younger audiences were down 80% on pre-pandemic levels.

Karen Egan, head of mobile at Enders Analysis, warns VMO2 faces a “tricky” year ahead. 

“On both mobile and fixed the company had significant advantages in the market for a long time – custom plans on mobile and very high speeds on fixed,” she says.

“Those advantages are now largely eroded, making it much more difficult to make headway in the market.”

“Liberty Global tends to take a very financially pragmatic approach to businesses – they don’t let sentimentality get in the way of a good deal,” says Egan.



“Telefonica is likely to have a more strategic view of the UK business, something that aligns well with their other operations around the world.”

“The jury is still out on whether that can turn around,” says Karen Egan, head of telecoms at Enders Analysis. Analysts also expect Vodafone to have to cut its dividend, which may prompt anguish among investors.

Karen Egan at Enders Analysis described the sale as a “bold move” that would leave Vodafone’s European operations dominated by the UK and Germany.

She added: “I’m somewhat surprised that they’re leaving Italy altogether given their history there but it’s the right move.”