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The UK’s Competition and Markets Authority approved Vodafone’s merger with Three UK without imposing the feared “structural” remedies — aka major asset sales. That’s good news for Vodafone itself. It expects to cut £700mn between costs and investments, which will allow the combined group’s return on capital to rise from the ashes to something approaching its cost, thinks Karen Egan at Enders Analysis. 

Claire Enders, media analyst at Enders Analysis, said there have been repeated attempts to buy James’ stake in the trust over the past six years, but no deal had ever been acceptable to both sides. But Rupert is “not a man who gives up”, she added.

Enders expected Elisabeth would lead efforts to reach a détente between the two sides: “She is believed to have taken the lead in previous disputes and crises requiring conciliation efforts between her father and his children.”

As Jamie MacEwan, senior research analyst at Enders Analysis pointed out, at a critical mass, this could foster a news network on Bluesky that becomes self-sustaining over time.

“Overall, traffic is going to be more about news personalities than [just] news publishers,” MacEwan continued. “The ability to have healthy two-way dialogue with public figures is something Twitter used to promote before losing its way, so the more controlled environment of Bluesky is a real selling point. Journalists are a big part of that, especially those connected into breaking events. You might get an outlet with a lot of followers, but just as many if not more will be following their star journalists and columnists.” 

"Agency holding groups have seen sharp competition from both online platforms and scrappy independents, driving the push to scale up and diversify their offerings. In terms of UK revenue, this merger would create a combined entity on par with WPP. Beyond simply bulking up, there’s real potential for margin improvement, as scale allows for more efficient investments in AI and other tech capabilities, which are increasingly critical for agencies. Publicis has shown how transformative this can be with its acquisitions over the last decade."

"There’s also some strategic complementarity in the deal – IPG would significantly enhance Omnicom’s strength in healthcare, experiential marketing and other niche areas. While this move is about overall scale, as successful indies show, scale isn't everything. Delivering for your clients strategically and creatively is the heart of the business."

“Della Valle has definitely done enough to prove herself more than capable,” says Karen Egan, head of telecoms at Enders Analysis. “But there is a limited time to get Germany right. There have been a series of challenges there that have not been surmounted as well as they might have been.”

Egan says the shares have suffered from a “conglomerate discount” and that Della Valle’s work “tidying up the group is going to help with that”.

She adds: “But the story has been marred by the ongoing difficulties in Germany, if Germany was firing on all cylinders, so would the shares.”

Karen Egan, head of telecoms at Enders Analysis, said the approval was the right outcome after Hutchison warned it was struggling to invest because it did not make a return on its capital.

“Three high-quality networks instead of four inferior ones will serve consumers and businesses better, and the industry can move away from the low returns, low investment cycle that has dogged it.”