“Investors don’t like uncertainty, and even if the far right doesn’t win the majority, it will be a weak coalition government,” French media analyst Francois Godard tells Variety.
In the near future, probably very little. Echoing how it has approached most areas of policymaking (quite possibly so the Conservatives can implode by themselves without risking putting their necks on the line), the Labour Pary, led by Keir Starmer, has said very little about its plans. As Claire Enders of Enders Analysis notes, “we currently don’t know” who might be taking over as secretary of state for culture, media and sport, with current shadow minister Thangam Debbonaire not certain to win her seat in the city of Bristol thanks to a surge in support for the local left-wing Green Party candidate.
“Ideas of privatization are from the right-wing playbook, so you can see them cropping up in France, in the Netherlands and everywhere where there’s an extreme right-wing politician,” says Enders.
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Karen Egan was quoted in Light Reading on "Vodafone-Three merger concerns aren't resolved by deal with VMO2"
4 July 2024"While BT's current 32% of spectrum won't change and is reasonable in a three-player market, they might argue that they are short of lower-band spectrum (important for coverage) and 5G spectrum (important for capacity)," said Karen Egan, the head of telecoms for Enders Analysis, in a LinkedIn post today.
Spectrum and towers: Market-changing telco deal
3 July 2024Vodafone/H3G/VMO2 have announced a spectrum-trading and towers-sharing deal, allaying potential spectrum concerns around the proposed Vodafone/H3G merger, although BT may argue that it is short of some critical spectrum bands.
The towers sharing agreement incorporates H3G spectrum into the VMO2/Vodafone Beacon agreement and appears to expand the agreement onto some of H3G's current sites.
We estimate a c.70% increase in VMO2 capacity from this deal and 5% for the industry as a whole (in addition to the 25% from the Vodafone/Three merger). BT/EE made a strong argument for spectrum reallocation in its merger objection, and some validity to that argument may or may not remain post-trade
Amazon is challenging online bargain competitors head on by launching its own direct-from-China sales channel, in a strategic reversal that aims to expand its audiences and competitiveness by segmenting product sales
Direct-from-China removes the competitive advantages of Amazon fulfilment and Prime to create a two-tiered Amazon for ultra-low-cost goods, making core fulfilment more efficient and providing advertising opportunities
The new product aims to grow Amazon's reach and relevance to non-Prime audiences, adding value across the Amazon ecosystem: offering efficiency for sellers and lower prices for consumers
Retail media, a ‘new’ form of advertising, is growing the overall advertising market with a highly personalisable and attributable offering, as other targeting mechanisms are threatened by the deprecation of third-party cookies.
Omnichannel retailers are ramping up third-party ad sales to boost margins, alongside less visible but significant growth opportunities for sales of first-party customer data for ad targeting elsewhere.
Long led by Amazon in the UK, the retail media is now shifting the broader advertising ecosystem: competition and innovation are rising as retailers seize growth opportunities, with incumbents threatened by disintermediation.
Dugmore’s prognosis is one with which Abi Watson, senior media analyst at Enders Analysis, agrees. “Resonating with young people is not about having this patronising view that Gen Z and young millennials want their news to be overly simple and dumbed down in order for it to appeal to them,” she tells City A.M.
“Far more important is that it is in the format and tone that works well on the platforms it’s posted.”
“It’s obviously not just young people that get a lot of their news from videos social media, but they are always the first adaptors of new technology,” says Enders’s Watson. “Outlets’ reach is gained from platforms like Instagram and TikTok, which helps build awareness of the brand, and that can help inculcate a more committed following and native browsing.”
“Disney’s parks, cruises, theatre shows and merchandise is 30-40 per cent of revenue and a big majority of profits,” says Tom Harrington of industry experts Enders Analysis. Although Netflix is some way behind them, Disney, he says, “is the obvious North Star when it comes to creating entire worlds around IP creations and characters”.
“In the US the company’s growth is now driven by getting existing subscribers to pay more – or getting freeloading users to pay for the first time – which will inevitably reach a ceiling,” explains Harrington. “Netflix needs to start building complementary businesses if it wants to keep an upward trajectory. These include gaming and advertising but also growing merchandising and experiences which if executed should only intensify fandom of its bigger brands and increase engagement.”
The EU is investigating Apple over its Digital Markets Act (DMA) compliance strategy, including its tight control over app distribution via the App Store. More open choices for apps would be a boon to media providers and consumers.
Apple is defending its ability to profit from its iPhone ecosystem, a vital principle for future growth. AI is also being dragged into the battle, as Europe misses out on Apple Intelligence, at least for now.
The EU legislated early and perhaps clumsily, but the rest of the world is matching the substance. The UK has just passed its new digital markets regulation, and mobile ecosystems will be a key early target for regulator scrutiny.
Battling on: European mobile in Q1 2024
27 June 2024Service revenue growth was broadly flat at 1.7% as improvements in Germany offset weaknesses in Italy.
The impact of price increases has been mixed, with subscriber losses dulling their upside, and the mixed picture looks set to continue into Q2.
The market continues to be challenging with elevated competition at the low end, pressure from some regulators to increase network coverage, and a somewhat soft EBITDA outlook.