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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

Alice Enders, the director of research at Enders Analysis, said: “The mega-trend in consumer music spend is not recorded streaming services but the experience of live music, which super-fan clusters especially will pay a lot for. “Oasis have been completely off both the recorded music and live music scenes, and reforming will drive ticket sales as well as streaming of their songs.”
However, the head of television at Enders Analysis, Tom Harrington, thinks the current row is unlikely to damage Strictly’s global appeal. “I don’t think anyone in Belgium or wherever is reading the press here and thinking: ‘I’m less likely to watch the Belgian version.’ It’s very well insulated. Other than maybe the problems that they’ve allegedly had in the UK could be happening somewhere else.” Harrington said that selling formats is estimated to make up about 20% of BBC Studios’ revenues but that the big formats are “very, very high margin … and incredibly lucrative”, which helps to explain Strictly’s importance to the BBC at a time when it is facing cuts because fewer people are paying the licence fee and, the BBC argues, 14 years of funding cuts by Conservative-led governments have reduced its budget by 30% in real terms.
“The decline in the last quarter is not particularly worse than previous periods but the writedown and the future impact of losing NBA games has crystallised the decline in the eyes of the investors, hence the reaction,” explains Tom Harrington, analyst at Enders Analysis. “The core problem Zaslav has which, say, Disney doesn’t, is that the company doesn’t really have truly mass-market content, which is what you need for success in streaming – and you need to have success in streaming to balance the decline in linear.”

Both subscriber and ARPU growth are showing clear signs that they are topping out. We expect increasing volatility in both metrics moving forward as low-ARPU subscriber additions tug against price hikes and churn-cycling in wealthier regions 

Many of the studios’ streamers are now flirting with profitability thanks to cost-cutting efforts, while cord-cutting only seems to be accelerating 

Almost 50% of streamer sign-ups are opting for the ad-tier. However, it will be some time before ad-tiers become a ‘meaningful’ revenue stream

If the Vodafone/Three merger is blocked we envisage a significant cost reduction push from Vodafone, with a highly uncertain path to acceptable returns.

H3G's capex would need to more than halve from 2022 levels to get its finances onto anything like a reasonable footing. A commensurate scale-back of its network, and commercial, ambitions would also be required.

With H3G likely to enact a slow walk from the UK under such a scenario via a hybrid MNO/MVNO strategy, the UK would end up with three nationwide mobile networks either way, just lower quality ones if the deal is blocked—with a real cost to consumers and the government's growth agenda.