Homepage

Karen Egan, head of telecoms at Enders Analysis, the research specialist, said that while there was a role for government money in crowding-in private investment in nascent industries or subsiding fibre build in rural areas, “becoming the lender of last resort in an intensely competitive market with too many players does not seem like a good use of public funds”.

That has been pretty good for the piggy-backers themselves. They pay wholesale network charges of around £3-£5 a month and pull in average revenue per user of £10 a month, according to Enders Analysis. 

According to Karen Egan, managing director for telecoms at Enders Analysis, "the fit is better" with CityFibre because there is "very limited overlap" between the two networks. With VMO2 and its fiber joint venture nexfibre, there would be 50% overlap with Netomnia. 

But, she added that CityFibre is likely able to offer "very limited cash" and more equity for such a transaction. "So, [it's] better industrial logic [with CityFibre], but in this market, it's difficult to compete with cash," she said.

Egan, with Enders Analysis, noted that nexfibre has recently slowed the pace of its network build. The decision has to do with "the struggle to get the right commercial return on self-build, and looming opportunities to pick up altnet networks more cheaply than the cost of building itself," she said.

Alt net mergers often involve a good chunk of equity, according to Enders Analysis analyst Karen Egan. “We would expect less than £500 per home passed to be paid in anything like hard currency,” she told Bloomberg.

“There will be considerable overlap between Netomnia and Nexfibre, probably more than 50% which would bring down the price worth paying even more,” Egan said.

After a post-pandemic investment boom that funded the high cost of installing fibre lines, the sector is now struggling with higher interest rates and more than £8bn of net debt, according to Enders Analysis estimates. 

“Fintechs are blurring the lines between banking, payments, and connectivity,” said James Barford, head of telecoms research at Enders Analysis. “They already control the digital interface with consumers — moving into mobile services is a natural extension of that ecosystem.”

In a recent note, Enders Analysis said it was “perverse” for ministers to pursue a tax that would have a chilling effect on investment while simultaneously encouraging and even subsidising network build.

Karen Egan, from Enders, said the Government’s approach to the telecoms sector “seems quite muddled”.

She added: “It is little wonder that the quality of all sorts of networks in the UK are behind where they should be given a more than 50pc tax on investment in them, on top of highly restrictive planning laws, which also add considerable expense and delays.

“The Government promised that their reform of the business rates system would better incentivise investment, yet they seem to be going down a route which will penalise the high-priority digital infrastructure sector that requires billions of investment a year to upgrade the UK’s networks.”