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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

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But Prosieben CEO Bert Habets has talked down the possibilities of a merger, stating that the company needs to be “in control of our own destiny.” And according to François Godard, Senior Media and Telecoms Analyst at Enders Analysis: “The pieces of the puzzle are not together to launch a takeover.” This could spell bad news for Prosieben shareholders, “who would love to see an auction for their stock,” especially with the aforementioned cut to their annual dividend.

There are several reasons why a takeover is off the table. Aside from the regulatory intervention that has prevented European mergers over the past year, MFE has neither the resources nor unified management to pursue the acquisition, though further collaboration with ProSieben is a more likely outcome. “MFE always said that they wanted to create some sort of cooperation with the Germans without necessarily buying them,” says Godard.

The UK economy’s zombie state persists 15 months since the cost-of-living crisis ignited, depressing real incomes by 2%. A new headwind is the rising cost of credit, which could tip the UK into a mild technical recession

Resolving the cost-of-living crisis is key to a recovery in 2024. Inflation is spreading from imported and traded goods to services; while CPI inflation is decreasing slowly, wage growth could ignite a wage-price spiral

Further structural change in advertising is being driven by post-pandemic ecommerce, which is 30% of retail sales excluding fuels and is underpinned by hybrid work-from-home (WFH)

Gareth Sutcliffe, senior games analyst at Enders Analysis, told IGN any divestiture “is likely to be face-saving as opposed to impactful”, adding: "Long-term access contracts are a better solution and have been accepted elsewhere.

"The question is really how would a divestiture benefit the UK market or consumer, especially if it’s related to cloud gaming? The CMA should pivot towards a long-term commitment from Activision and Microsoft to stay and invest more systemically in the UK games industry. No other regulator has requested or achieved that."

 

“Meta’s failure to launch Threads in the EU is more to do with making a point about European regulation than the business case for launching,” says Niamh Burns of Enders Analysis, a media research group based in London. Burns notes the setup of the new app, which involves bundling Instagram and Threads to create a “captive audience” (users set up Threads using their existing Instagram accounts, and you can’t delete your Threads account without deleting Instagram) “is the kind of thing European regulators hate.”

“This week’s ruling strengthens regulators’ hands when it comes to Meta’s core business,” says Burns. “It is significant in terms of enforcement powers, even if it is not yet clear how it will be interpreted to impact Meta’s wider data practices. Meta’s business model could be under threat here.”

Channel 4 was resilient in 2022: highlighted by a 2% YoY drop in total revenues after a record 2021, a quickly growing digital business and a new high for content spend

With privatisation now off the table, in its draft form the Media Bill presents new opportunities and challenges: an “appropriate degree of prominence” on smart TVs and devices, the option to produce content for the first time, and a “sustainability duty”

The effect that these might have is murky without a body of interpretation and mediation, and indeed execution—it appears uncertain whether Channel 4 would begin to produce, with the optics concerning indie producers tricky and accumulation of the required operational skills a long process 

At the heart of the new crisis is an advertising slowdown that is battering the commercial TV sector. Enders Analysis expects the ad market to fall by 10pc in the first half of the year.

Tom Harrington, of Enders Analysis, says: “Given its structure and role, Channel 4 is going to find itself in difficult spots, but there are times when it could probably have been a bit more street smart.”

“Channel 4 has had fewer new shows break through in recent years than its direct competitor,” says Harrington. “Essentially they rely, to a greater extent, on older content.”

“One the one hand, who would want that job? There are just so many people to keep happy and none of them ever are,” says Karen Egan at Enders Analysis.



“But on the other hand it could be really quite a good time to take over. The whole BT story has so far been one of huge expense and not a lot of upside, but give it three to five years and it could look really different.”

Karen says the new chief executive must also place more focus on selling the story of full-fibre broadband to investors, who see it as a costly exercise generating little return.

 

According to Karen Egan, senior telecoms analyst at Enders Analysis: “The future for BT is all about the switch to full fibre. This is the painful part, where they are spending lots of money and haven’t got much in the way of upside, but that can change quite markedly when they get over the hump of the spend and the narrative could be very different. BT could do a better job of telling the story, but there is a good story there to tell.”