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“Those guidelines were manifestly never reflected in the contract, nor probably those of the other many freelancers on BBC Sport,” says Alice Enders, director of research at Enders Analysis. Had the BBC fired him, she notes, the network would have been liable to pay out Lineker’s contract in full. 

“What seems clear is that the BBC does not want [Lineker] to criticize sitting members of the government,” Enders says. “And the past five years have shown how nasty and vicious some of those politicians can be and how much they would like the BBC’s license fee to disappear in a puff of smoke so they can fully occupy the airwaves with their own opinionated shows.”

“All this has put the BBC’s independence at risk, and its reputation at risk,” said Claire Enders, a London-based media researcher and the founder of Enders Analysis. “That’s unfortunate because this is, at heart, a dispute over whether the BBC can impose its social media guidelines on a contractor.”

Some say that the matter is likely to pass soon. “It has been blown out of proportion,” says Claire Enders, founder and owner of Enders Analysis a media consulting firm, who notes the BBC has faced criticism about its presenters airing divisive views for years. Ms. Enders expects Mr. Lineker to be back presenting Match of the Day shortly. 

“If they don’t do the right things this could be existential for them,” says Jamie MacEwan, senior media analyst at Enders Analysis. “TikTok is a service you can ban without too much disruption in the real economy. It’s not like banning WhatsApp or an app with a lot of functionality. In the US, the biggest misgivings [over banning TikTok] are seen as losing the young vote and freedom of speech.”

He notes that while TikTok was successful in facing down a previous attempt to close it down led by Donald Trump, its current crisis “feels a bit more bi-partisan in the US” and is far more serious.

There is a growing sense in the industry that big names are starting to probe deeper into whether their streaming model can be sustainable – that they’re finally “starting to look under the hood”, as Tom Harrington, head of television at Enders Analysis, puts it. “Should you be spending this much? How efficient is it? [These are] questions that suddenly start getting asked when you’re not adding five million subscribers every quarter,” he says.

He added “The general rule of thumb is that when there are times of economic stress, people go out less, go to the cinema less, go to restaurants less, which means they’re at home more,” says Harrington. “If you’re watching more TV, you’re getting more value from your [streaming] subscription.”

This desire for all digital is also perhaps an announcement effect. "He speaks of 'a few years' for this change, which is very imprecise and probably also intended to reassure its shareholder KKR", analyzes François Godard, analyst at Enders Analysis.