European mobile revenue growth improved by 0.8ppts in Q3 to reach -0.3%, but all of this improvement and more was due to easing regulatory pressures, with underlying growth actually declining marginally
GDP growth continues to improve year-on-year, but in the current low confidence environment underlying mobile revenue growth is not (yet) responding. Smartphone sales are surging, but their net impact on revenue is hard to discern
Looking forward, the regulatory impact is likely to turn negative again for the next few quarters, so some underlying growth catch-up is required for revenue growth to stay at around zero
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C&W Worldwide’s performance over the six months to September was strong in terms of cash flow growth, although this was partly due to lower bad debt cost
Revenue decline is easing, but weakness in the mid-market business and reduced public sector spending are weighing on EBITDA
Looking ahead, this should improve somewhat, as the retail mid-market business recovers, but we expect growth in the core business to remain unexciting
HD platform differentiation
17 November 2010A large gap has opened up between the different platforms in the five years since HD launched in the UK, with the pay-TV platforms – above all Sky – gaining a large lead over the free-to-air satellite and terrestrial platforms
With HD Ready TV sets now counting for almost half the total population of TV sets in the UK, the big issue facing the free-to-air platforms is the number of channels, where Sky (now 52 HD channels) and Virgin Media (now 28 HD channels) are expanding their lead over the free-to-air platforms Freeview (now 4 channels) and Freesat (now 3 channels)
Freeview in particular offers no clear evolutionary pathway beyond five channels in the next five years, except through acquisition of more capacity in the coming spectrum auction, where the outcome is very uncertain or via streamed high capacity broadband, which faces significant challenges in building penetration
TTG H1 2010/11 interim results: the Dido effect
17 November 2010TalkTalk Group (TTG) revenue growth for the six months to September was flat on a like-for-like basis; broadband net additions were affected by heavy churn among former Tiscali customers as the migration process got under way
Guidance for broadband net adds to March has been reduced by two thirds, but the prospect of improved efficiency from migrations and strong ARPU growth has enabled financial guidance for the full year to be maintained
Management has laid out ambitious plans to improve performance further by cutting costs. The plans look feasible, but controlling churn will be a long haul
BT Q2 2010/11 results: digging in
15 November 2010Group performance to September was affected by increased investment in fibre and other defensive measures, as expected
Despite strong retail broadband subscriber growth, the core business remains under siege. High speed broadband should – eventually – provide an effective defence, but not much more
The Global Services turnaround is continuing, and further progress at GS supported by improving stability in the rest of the group should enable new guidance to be met
Vodafone Europe’s underlying revenue growth rose slightly in the September quarter, performing well in a market that is still only slowly recovering. Control of fixed costs was strong, but rising handset subsidies pushed margins down again
Vodafone’s updated strategy contains strong elements of a focus on the nitty gritty and a move away from the more expansive desires of the past, which is excellent. Successful implementation remains a challenge, but at least head office is likely to be a help, not a hindrance
Vodafone’s medium term expectations are for growing revenue and stable margins, which is laudably ambitious compared to past performances, and may even be achievable if it can balance smartphone tariffs and handset subsidies to its net advantage
Carphone Warehouse 2010/11 interim results: US driven growth
8 November 2010CPW’s European handset business had a steady quarter, with growth dipping slightly on the previous quarter but still in line with full year guidance. Smartphone sales are surging, and CPW is orientating its business towards them, but their impact is not unambiguously positive in Europe
The US handset business continued to enjoy strong growth, with this side of their business benefitting strongly from smartphone growth, and this outperformance led the company to increase its full year EBIT guidance
The UK ‘big box’ roll-out is continuing, but no sales figures or indications have been given, and the full year operating loss guidance has been increased, eating up some (but not all) of the outperformance from the US. There appears to still be much experimentation involved at this stage, and even more uncertainty about the eventual success or failure of this new business
The Financial Times
6 November 2010With evidence available for the first time of the take-up of the online subscription service for the Times and Sunday Times (Experts doubt Times paywall data) the FT suggested that the subscriber statistics published by News International were unreliable and even had been described by analysts and commentators as “chicanery”."
The article revealed that although News International had claimed that "105,000 “digital products” of The Times and The Sunday Times had been sold since the paywall went up in July, of those, more than 50,000 related to people currently paying monthly subscriptions for an iPad edition, for content on Amazon’s Kindle or in weekly £2 payments through the website".
Douglas McCabe was asked for his view. He said: “The numbers seem to demonstrate people are more inclined to pay for convenient on-the-move news services [the tablet], rather than desktop access.”
The Financial Times
6 November 2010Following the decision by the business secretary, Vince Cable, to refer to Ofcom's adjudication in the public interest, the proposed bid by Newscorp for the remaining 60.9 per cent of BSkyB that it does not already own (Ofcom weighs case in interests of the public) the FT suggested that the regulator's view will be determined largely by a perceived loss of plurality resulting from Newscorp's consolidation of media ownership.
Chris Goodall was asked for his opinion. He said that “Plurality is an anticompetitive construct." He added that its function is to "prevent market forces being the sole determinant of the provision of news and current affairs because we have decided as a society that we would rather have a wider choice of opinions and information to listen to, read or watch on television.”
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/98d332c6-e84e-11df-8995-00144feab49a.html