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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

The press industry lost £1 billion off the topline from the calamitous decline in print revenues due to pandemic-related mobility restrictions, partly offset by gains on digital subscriptions, much harder to precisely size in revenue terms.



Trapped at home for the most part, online traffic to BBC News and news publisher services boomed. Popular news sites marginally grew digital advertising while the quality nationals attracted 800,000 new paying subscribers to reach nearly three million in 2020.



The outlook for 2021, in the transition to the ‘new normal’, is mixed. Consumer work patterns and news, information and entertainment habits are unlikely to ‘bounce back’ to pre-pandemic levels, placing free commuter titles at particular risk. Signs of confidence through online innovation are welcome.

After a strong post-pandemic rebound, Sky has the opportunity to leverage its strong reputation with consumers to meet the challenge posed by new competitors and the studios’ direct-to-consumer transition, establishing Sky Q as the ultimate gatekeeper of video subscription homes.

Sports rights costs in Germany and Italy have been cut significantly, while Sky’s spend on UK Premier League rights will decrease in real terms. Savings will ease the financing of the shift to original content, which, associated with owner Comcast’s NBCU output, anchors the aggregation strategy.

Fibre deployment in the UK and Italy presents a subscriber and revenue growth opportunity, and underpins the gradual shift away from satellite to online content distribution.

Virgin Media’s subscriber boom continued into 2021, despite a marked price rise in Q1, benefiting from lockdown and continued demand for higher speed broadband.

ARPU remained weak in Q1, suppressing revenue growth, but this will recover (somewhat) in Q2 as the price rise takes effect, countering the current disconnect between volume and revenue growth.

The merger with O2 is set to complete in June, with much operational pre-merger preparation already done, but the key strategic questions appear yet to be decided.

Tom said viewers’ passion counts. “Succession on Sky doesn’t rate very highly — around 200,000 viewers — but they are passionate enough to renew their subscriptions to see the next season, which makes it valuable enough for Sky to pay to fly [its star] Brian Cox over for the programme launch."

He added “As TV shows get more expensive, with more broadcasters collaborating and with more at stake, you probably will find data being used like this. Shows like Amazon’s Lord of the Rings cost the same as a big-budget picture, so you would think they could get audience feedback before putting it out. As things get more expensive, people want more certainty.”

Enders Analysis senior media analyst Jamie MacEwan said: "The timing makes sense.

"Apple probably anticipates increased demand for exposure on the App Store. That's because Apple's iOS privacy changes have made other options less attractive."

Ad campaigns on other sites had less reliable measurements of success, he said.

And app developers ran ads only if they were sure the cost of winning new customers was lower than the amount they would spend on the app.

"As its ads business grows, Apple will have to make sure its execution on consent and privacy is impeccable" to avoid accusations of putting itself first, Mr MacEwan added.