Homepage

Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

With the decline in its subscriber base accelerating and following an antitrust veto over its planned tie up with BeIN Sports, Canal+ has decided to radically restructure its retailing on IPTV – where over 60% of subscriber recruitment takes place 

The basic channel package is now wholesale to ISPs and included in upper tier triple play bundles – much higher volumes should more than balance a deep price cut. Soon premium and optional packages are to be unbundled on all platforms to create cheaper entry points and favour subscriber customisation

Canal+ is thus increasingly focused on supplying premium content, leaving the user interface to ISPs. Without the scale of other international content producers and in a nationalistic political context, we believe that this market rationale will eventually lead Vivendi to sell Canal+ to Orange

Brexit will take place in March 2019 and the rush is now on to complete the UK’s exit through Article 50 negotiations and set the framework for post-Brexit trade with the EU

Trade-related investment by companies is at high risk from uncertainty; a free-trade area (FTA) for manufactured products should be a priority for 2019

Barriers to trade in services in the EU are more nebulous than tariffs and far more political in Member States, justifying a Comprehensive Economic Partnership (CEP)

A lacklustre UK launch of Viceland—the new, multinational linear television channel from youth-skewing, gonzo-esque Vice Media—followed six months after a similarly underwhelming entrance into the US

It is surely early days, but despite strong content, the initial results were predictable, considering the challenges. The response by Vice, that viewing figures are essentially immaterial to its plans, was expected but deviated from earlier, bullish sentiments

Beyond linear viewing, as an intended mass “content generator” to power the greater Vice online network, Viceland may answer a fundamental question: Is Vice and its distinctive content really what the kids want?

The Times

3 October 2016

Thomas Caldecott was quoted in an article on the parent company of the Telegraph Media Group which has paid its owners a dividend of £150 million while swinging to a big loss, heightening speculation that its owners, Sir Frederick Barclay and his twin brother, Sir David, may be preparing a sale of the newspaper group. Thomas said the Telegraph group was financially robust. However, it had been forced to cut costs and was arriving at a point where it could not extract overheads without compromising the quality of the product.

The automotive industry is moving towards self-driving or autonomous vehicles (AVs) as a mass-market proposition, relying on a spate of partnerships with tech companies

Ridesharing in AVs is the obvious commercial application, with Uber and Google racing to launch pilots of their fleets

Many challenges lie ahead. AV developers claim current regulation is too restrictive, whilst regulators argue that mass market AVs do not yet meet safety standards

Amazon’s smart Echo speakers are coming to Europe, powered by a voice-controlled intelligent assistant, Alexa. Echo is thought to have found surprise success in the US

Alexa is best thought of as the most complete Voice User Interface (VUI) on the market. We expect VUIs to supplant graphical user interfaces for a variety of use-cases, in the home, on the move and in the car. Competition in this area is increasing

Alexa is being positioned as the Android for voice, moving beyond devices made by Amazon in an attempt to jumpstart adoption, and with developers building services on top of Alexa’s core voice platform

The battle in the US between Amazon, ecommerce giant, and Walmart, the retail titan, reflects the changing face of US retail as online drives growth

Amazon, the everything store, innovates on marketplace, warehouse and logistics, and customer tools like Prime, while Walmart fortifies in-store and builds on its strengths 

Walmart cannot overtake Amazon online, but it can defend its position as the largest US retailer as Amazon drives an ecommerce future for retailing 

 

 

 

European mobile service revenue growth worsened slightly in Q2, dropping to -1.2% after three consecutive quarters at -0.8%. Southern Europe significantly outperformed the North, reversing the regional trend of recent years

EU roaming rate cuts and the increase in SIM-only subscriptions were the two main negative, albeit temporary, factors with the former particularly impacting northern European operators with heavy roaming exposure and the latter more varied in its impact across the EU5

Mobile service revenue growth was thus quite robust given these factors, helped by price firming in a number of markets. Looking forward, while the negative factors are likely to continue in the short-term they will drop out in two years in the case of roaming cuts, and SIM-only, whose impact is mostly profit-neutral to operators, will also reach an equilibrium in due course, and the market's overall resilience is encouraging

The Times

26 September 2016

Alice Enders was quoted in an article discussing the UK's possible post-Brexit trade arrangements with the EU, saying “All of this can be done without any mess or fuss. There can be a transitional period of post-Brexit tariff-free trade between the UK and the EU until a formal free-trade arrangement is finalised — this is the wholehearted wish of EU companies reliant on supply chains involving the UK. “There is much precedent for such an arrangement from the EU side. And this would not involve the UK continuing with unchecked migration from the EU or substantial payments into the EU budget.”

Ms Enders was absolutely not in favour of Brexit: this is dispassionate analysis, not politically motivated wishful thinking.