Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.
Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.
Enders Analysis, a media industry research firm, said last week that Mr Cardinale’s status as a newcomer to news publishing meant the regulatory process could be smooth and complete by September. The potential involvement of Lord Rothermere, the owner of The Daily Mail, as a minority shareholder alongside RedBird could complicate matters.
Gerry Cardinale of RedBird Capital is poised to take the reins of the Telegraph Media Group (TMG) after two years of unforeseen events that led to an unfortunate limbo at TMG.
We anticipate Gerry Cardinale will be vetted under the “public interest” regime for newspapers, which should be a smooth process and conclude by September 2025.
The saga of TMG provoked a new regime for foreign state-owned investors that is a new constraint on all media mergers.
Germany suffered a sizeable EBITDA decline in the 2H of FY25, and guidance for European EBITDA next year implies another tough year in FY26 with an underlying 5% decline for Europe as a whole excluding 1&1.
Elsewhere, the UK had a very solid FY25 and is a good news story for the Group with the merger with Three in prospect, but the Rest of World’s contribution is likely to diminish from here.
Various one-offs will support the outlook for next year, but operational execution is at the core of Vodafone’s raison d’être. Beyond some encouraging KPIs, investors continue to await meaningful evidence of such.
Karen Egan, at Enders Analysis, said: “Openreach, like the other established players, are suffering line losses as a consequence of the alt-net fibre goldrush, and TalkTalk customer declines.
“It makes things tough for now but the free cashflow recovery story is not at risk and the line losses should moderate as the alt-nets no longer have the funding to expand their networks.”
Openreach, which operates a nationwide broadband network and sells access to other providers, accounts for about 30% of BT’s sales. Pressure from a new crop of challenger fiber optic providers, known as alt-nets, are hurting some older providers, Enders Analysis analyst Karen Egan said.
“Openreach is suffering losses to the alt-nets in the same way that the rest of its established peers are,” she said. “It’s tough for now, but those losses will naturally deplete as the alt-net funding market has dried up.”
Advertising has outgrown the UK's wider economy by 20 percentage points since 2000 thanks to online and advertisers in export markets, especially China, targeting sales in the import-dependent UK market.
If current trends held to 2030, advertising would reach 1.7% of UK GDP, over 50% higher than 2019—we believe this to be the least likely scenario as the UK already sustains higher ad intensity than major markets.
The next recession could be the moment when online ads growth corrects and then reverts to low single-digit growth in line with the economy. A 'soft landing' is also possible, while a surprise outperformance would require more drastic structural shifts.
2024 was a stabilising year after a troubling 2023— Channel 4's revenue was up 1% and it ended the year with a much smaller deficit, although aided by a drop in both overall and original content spend.
Facing slightly uncertain conditions, the broadcaster continues to be over-exposed to the advertising market —91% of revenues—meaning its thoughtful move into production and acquisition is necessary and should be supported.
Channel 4’s presence in streaming continues to grow but struggles to mask the continued drop of 16-34 viewing share. Online success owed much to the increasing influence of foreign library content—this commanded increased spend in 2024.
“KKR wants to send a message that scale will bring higher margins,” says François Godard, a senior media analyst at Enders Analysis. “The M&A scene will continue to be dynamic, so we can expect Mediawan to keep growing.” The company refinanced last year, raising a €500 million loan and a €225 million revolving credit facility, which analysts say will fund acquisitions. D’Arvieu says Mediawan is unlikely to embark on a shopping “frenzy”, but will instead target partners that share the same “artistic vision as us”.
