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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

Q1 was always going to be tough for Vodafone with lower in-contract price increases a very significant drag on performance (across the sector), TV losses in Germany ramping up, and ongoing struggles to turn around broadband performance there. A deterioration in German mobile is an unwelcome addition.


Encouragingly, Vodafone continues to optimise its portfolio and is guiding to a U-shaped recovery, with Q2 particularly weak and B2B driving a better 2H.

While there are particular headwinds this year and tailwinds next which point to an improving outlook, better operational performance remains critical to the company's future, and we continue to await evidence of this.

Karen Egan, a telecoms specialist at Enders Analysis, said that inflation-linked rises helped firms to offer competitive upfront deals to entice new customers and to make up for the fact that it had become harder to make profits in other areas. “Traditionally operators made their real profits from things such as roaming, international calls and out-of-contract pricing. Regulation has really chipped away at many of these, leaving operators with fewer and fewer ways to make money.”
Amazon Prime Video has also signed a deal in several territories, including France, to broadcast NBA games. French fans will therefore have access to American basketball from 2025. "This is an indication that Amazon does not intend to stop in sports and could have even more appetite in Europe," notes François Godard. According to Enders' calculations, all sports combined, Amazon will spend "at least" 3.3 billion euros on an annual basis from 2025. "The platforms are present in all the major calls for tender, particularly in the United States, becoming direct competitors of traditional broadcasters," continues Christophe Lepetit.

Google has permanently shelved the 2025 deadline for removing all third-party cookies from Chrome, but publishers should prepare for much higher rates of users blocking cookies. 

The online economy is still moving towards more privacy and user controls on the major platforms, with Android the next target for the Privacy Sandbox. 

Regulators are increasingly setting the terms online, limiting Google's freedom of movement, and with the conflict between competition and user privacy protections defining the next phase of the internet.

The next generation of the largest and most powerful 'frontier' AI models will be a key test for the pace of AI progress, with OpenAI's upcoming GPT-5 the most highly anticipated.

For OpenAI, the stakes are high, facing a growing assortment of rivals and with huge spend on training and running models to recoup. Staying at the cutting edge is key to justifying itself to the big tech backers on which it depends.

If OpenAI can deliver technology that matches its ambitious vision for what AI can be, it will be transformative for its own prospects, but also the economy more broadly. Falling short could be fatal.

Joseph Teasdale, head of tech at research firm Enders Analysis, told Business Insider that the site has "always had strong, active networks of high-powered professionals talking shop," despite the fact "it has never been a billion-user social network" like Instagram or Facebook. "X's staying power is a testament to the strength and value of these networks," he said. "The president's use of the service is a good example of how X has maintained its relevance."
Alice Enders, head of research at Enders Analysis, told the BBC while streaming has become popular, "the physical format never went away, as vinyl truly shows". "In Japan, the CD+DVD is still far ahead of digital because merchandise is a key part of the j-pop live experience and establishing a history at home is the ultimate homage," she said. "HMV is not the only supplier benefitting from this resurgence of the hard copy, also seen in books."

After an arduous ten-month process, France’s Ligue 1 has reached a tentative deal to license its 2024-29 broadcasting rights at a price 14% down on the previous cycle.

Adding France (for €400 million p.a.), DAZN now has prominent positions in four out of the five big European markets. With a weekly top pick (for €100m p.a.), beIN consolidates its model.

Attention turns to distribution, and whether DAZN will patch up its partnership with Canal+.