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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

In the next fixed line regulatory review—TAR 2026—Ofcom is likely to maintain light regulation on Openreach’s pricing levels, while also maintaining strict restrictions on its pricing structures, which both help altnets. 

On other matters, none of the interested parties (Openreach/altnets/ISPs) look like getting exactly what they want, but by and large the industry will likely get what it needs—regulatory stability with a broadly pro-investment slant.

The next TAR in 2031 is likely to be more dramatic, but by our estimates, even a full return to cost-based charging will not result in significant wholesale price cuts, which is likely to be a relief to longer term investors in BT and the altnets alike.

Broadcasters are accelerating their transformation into digital-first businesses. We estimate that 17% of broadcasters' viewing on the TV set will have been delivered by IP this year.

FTA platforms have a more complex migration pathway to IP than pay-TV. Given the existing strength of DTT, and its older demographic profile, DTT will account for more broadcaster viewing hours than satellite/cable combined by 2029.

By 2040, we estimate that half of all broadcaster viewing will be via IP, with broadcast delivery remaining strong due to the live schedule.

Telefónica’s innovation can be directly relevant to the media sector — it owns Spanish pay TV and SVOD operator Movistar Plus+, Europe’s largest film and TV investor among telcos. But it will play out over a far wider scale. The focus at Barcelona’s Mobile World Congress was largely on gaining cost efficiencies in mobile operators complex systems, observes James Barford of London-based research company Enders Analysis.

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We view the CMA's proposed remedies to the Vodafone/Three merger as workable, but not necessary.

While acknowledging the reassurance that short-term pricing commitments can provide, we are of the view that going too far risks distorting a highly competitive market.

Aggressive MVNO pricing commitments, in particular, could amplify a significant drain on the operators' capacity to invest, threatening the network promises that the companies are making.

“You can make an enormous amount of money from a kids TV show and it can be more successful than almost any other large format,” agrees Tom Harrington, analyst at Enders Analysis. “It travels well, language can change easily, there’s a new audience every couple of years and lots of merch opportunities. But to get commissioned in the first place is very difficult. In the UK there’s so many limits on what ads you can put around it so there’s no demand from advertisers and it’s not a good business for commercial broadcasters.”

As Jamie MacEwan, who covers tech for Enders Analysis, puts it: “The idea of seamlessly blending entertainment and productivity into the world is exciting. But still theoretical, as manufacturers have a mountain to climb first. You need an affordable, lightweight device that’s comfortable to wear but has decent battery life, compelling applications and a good enough display to be truly usable.

“These glasses simply don’t do enough to change the world. But they are closer to the form factor and pricing that will sell AR than Apple's headset."