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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

Big tech capex is set to jump over 50% in 2024, fueling the current AI boom, and supporting the training and deployment of the next-generation of frontier models slated for release over the next 2-4 months

If these frontier models can deliver greater capabilities, and the returns to match, it will intensify the race to scale up capex even further to train ever more powerful models on ever larger clusters of chips

If returns do not flow to the frontier, then models become commoditised, with all of big tech able to capitalise on their application layer dominance. If they do, then outcomes are uneven and uncertain with the core cloud players racing for dominance and leaving the others behind

Google's latest results suggest it is landing the AI transition, with multiple ways to exploit its investments in AI infrastructure.

Integrating AI into search is an imperative for Google. Unit cost and monetisation trends are reassuring, but the question of the search engine/website compact is not resolved.

Google is facing antitrust enforcement in its home market. Wrangling over remedies is ongoing, but Apple may be the one who can break Google's advantages.

A report from Enders Analysis has argued that generative artificial intelligence “will not alter the fundamental commercial reality for the news” as the shift online did previously.

The research firm cautioned publishers to be “realistic” about the productivity and revenue gains possible from AI, but added that ignoring AI would be “a mistake”.

The report found there have been some valuable uses for AI in the newsroom — but argued that there may not be an “immediate, killer news use case to raise revenues”.

AI can also help to create “more sophisticated metadata for archival material”, they wrote, in turn making it easier for journalists and readers to access a publisher’s back catalogue. This could have revenue implications for local publishers in particular, they said, “where some historical material has barely been digitised”.

“Increased regulatory pressure could be behind this new publisher push,” said Niamh Burns, senior research analyst in tech and media at Enders Analysis. “From TikTok’s perspective, it helps to have fact-checked, informative news publisher content on TikTok to counter any narrative around disinformation or platform bias.”

But as she pointed out, publishers don’t make money on TikTok, at least not yet. “Until this improves it’ll remain an arms-length relationship for a lot of publishers,” Burns added. “TikTok isn’t a referral channel, and publishers need to balance getting their brand in front of young people with the risk of getting lost in the content mix.”

This was mainly driven by rising interest costs, which account for more than 100pc of alt-nets’ turnover on average, according to figures from Enders Analysis.

Enders said the tie-up could help CityFibre win market share from BT and Virgin Media O2 but warned there were limited wholesale prospects for smaller alt-nets.

The amount of money raised so far this year is barely enough to cover losses and interest charges – let alone to fund continued network expansion, Enders said.

UK football rights values have pulled further away from European peers in a stagnant market, as telcos have withdrawn and tech companies remain selective bidders.

Sky and Canal+ have tied down key contracts until towards the end of the decade, while DAZN now has domestic rights for four of the top five European football leagues.

Tech players want live sport, but have distinctive demands and without new monetisation models they will not challenge pay-TV incumbents.