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Looking beyond the U.K. and U.S. Claire suggested certain European powerhouses such as Vivendi, which controls one third of key Channel 4 supplier Banijay, and RTL parent Bertelsmann, which owned Channel 5 between 2005 and 2011.
“The outcome will drive the net result and identity of Channel 4’s suitors,” added Enders, who predicted UK producer trade body Pact will “fight this every inch of the way” on behalf of its members.
The Government intends to privatise Channel 4 through its forthcoming Media Bill.
Given the uncertainty of the investment in Channel 4 and the limited upside from advertising, the only likely buyers are other broadcasters.
There are potential costs to the UK if the unique programming output of Channel 4 is lost and in the reduced funding of the independent production sector.
As part of the House of Lords Communications and Digital Committee inquiry into the future of BBC funding, Claire Enders gave oral evidence. Here we reproduce her accompanying slides.
The presentation highlights the reliance placed upon the BBC for information during the pandemic, and contextualises the value of the licence fee to consumers alongside the cost of other sources of news and entertainment. It further notes the significant proportion of viewers that lack the means, or do not wish, to pay for any video service beyond the cost of the licence fee.
While a subscription model has been mooted as an alternative to the licence fee, recent volatility in the market has magnified concerns around the sustainability of the streaming model, and while growing penetration and investment in content by these services remains impressive, there is less certainty around the future plurality and distinctiveness of these platforms, and the related cost to subscribers.
European mobile revenue growth was zero for the third successive quarter with better mobility but less roaming upside, some B2B weakness, and stronger competitive intensity in the Italian and Spanish markets
Q1 should evidence some similar trends but the impact of out-of-contract notifications will begin to emerge and roaming looks set to become a significant boost from Q2
Consolidation fever continues to dominate the headlines though this is set against a backdrop of considerable uncertainty regarding regulatory approval
Claire said "You have to consider that people don't watch high-end dramas end-to-end all the time, what they do is they watch a whole range of different programming. Channel 4 is obliged to offer news, current affairs, documentaries, all kinds of programmes which are made with a very distinctive British voice."
"Some of them are very low budget, so although the visible signs of competition tend to be whether you've got an amazing new franchise based on Lord Of The Rings to land, actually the bread and butter of TV and TV advertising is made of daytime shows, of late nights, of all kinds of programmes that people like to plonk into...
"Channel 4 really is a very cutting edge broadcaster with a very strong base in young viewers, which is extremely attractive to advertisers. Advertising is not a feature of Netflix, it's not a feature of Disney+. It's not actually in direct competition with anyone. It is in fact a free-to-air broadcaster, universally available."
Claire said Mr Lynton was considered a future director-general of the BBC and a big supporter of public service broadcasting.
"I would see him as a defender of Channel 4's remit, a defender of independence of Channel 4 and someone who would bring gravitas and a lot of corporate governance experience."
Claire Enders, founder of media research firm Enders Analysis, said Channel 4 might end up being better off owned by a company that “wishes it all the best” rather than “a government that does not want it”.
She warned, however, that the process of preparing the necessary legislation was likely to be long and could stretch beyond the next election, adding that another government might have a different attitude towards Channel 4 and privatisation.
The channel could fetch between 750 million pounds ($984 million) and 1.2 billion pounds, said Claire Enders, founder of Enders Analysis, depending on which elements of its current responsibilities are preserved. It could take years of lawmaker wrangling and “is not going to be for the faint-hearted."
