Homepage

Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

Channel 5 has been a rare recent success story in linear television, growing overall viewing and share while beginning to shake off the perception of being the home of cheaper, exploitative programming, consolidated under the ownership of Richard Desmond's Northern & Shell

The programming shift—most notably in investment in lower-price-point British drama—has been made possible with savings from axing schedule centerpieces Big Brother and soon, Neighbours. However, this will result in continued declines in 16-34 viewing share

The other channel brands of Paramount Global (formerly ViacomCBS) are in a gradual downswing: My5 is subscale, while Pluto TV makes less sense in the UK than in other markets. We wait with interest as to how upcoming SVOD, Paramount+, will differentiate

The Times and the Sunday Times have posted a record operating profit of £44.7 million, the highest (in nominal terms) since 1990, doubling a strong 2020

All the Times’ online metrics are going in the right direction, partly reflecting a favourable news agenda, but also a renewed energy, imagination and working rhythm galvanised by a new team and structure                                            

Reader economies are gathering momentum, at least among the quality press, and there are also hopeful signals among local and magazine media. Signs of reader subscription fatigue are supply-side rather than demand-driven—publishers should double down on their mission and purpose

The UK government is on the cusp of introducing legislation that will force online platforms to monitor and mitigate the presence and spread of harmful and illegal content, in a regulatory first for big tech.

Affected companies should take note: they will need to prepare for a higher level of transparency and communication with regulators, and larger service providers will require expanded moderation, user verification and research capabilities.

Users should be protected as platforms balance complex competing duties. News publisher content has a carveout, but publishers may experience butterfly effects as the online environment is reshaped.

Claire said “I don’t know what his expectations are, but I imagine that someone will tell him that he will have to restrain his desire to make public pronouncements."

“What he brings to the role is the political connection. He’s the opposite in every respect from Lord Burns and Dame Patricia Hodgson, who were his predecessors, because neither of them expressed their political views."

“Also neither of them had a specific agenda that they’d been pursuing for some time to diminish and change institutions such as the BBC or Channel Four, which have been established by Parliament and only Parliament can change,” she adds.

Tom sounds a note of caution. “Supercharging Doctor Who makes sense for BBC Studios, but less so for Sony,” he says. “Sony is the only studio without a direct-to-consumer streaming service, so greater value would have to be derived from sales. 

Is there a big international buyer that wants to license – and fund – the show? Perhaps, but if there is that sort of demand, why is the show generally only on smaller channels internationally, such as BBC America? That being said, maybe Sony will take a ‘build it and they will come’ philosophy to the show.”

Tom said it may be difficult for other streamers to follow Netflix as easily in monetizing account sharing, even if it does seem inevitable. “Other streamers do not have this strength, with churn much higher and value more tenuous, but this is the direction of travel that they want, will and need to go."

He added “Of, say, the 15 to 20 percent of users that are getting the service for free, some will subscribe or bolt on to the account they are currently leeching off. Few of the paying subs will unsubscribe, with their immediate value remaining the same. A clampdown will be a net positive for Netflix.”

Alice said the deal was unsurprising in the context of the current market: “The first, and perhaps most obvious point, is that we are now another regional publisher fewer in the UK. Consolidation is always to be expected in a declining industry.”

She added  “Like any merger, it is likely the new owners will seek to reduce costs and overheads, though Rcapital will have likely realised many back-office rationalisations.”

Mobile service revenue growth improved slightly to -1.7% in Q4 as a higher mobility boost outweighed drags from continuing B2B weakness and MTR cuts.

Q1 prospects look mixed but the real turning point remains Q2 when the impact of inflation-linked price rises looks set to boost growth by 2-5ppts—nudging sector growth into positive territory for the first time since 2018.

Ofcom’s market review did not outline a change of stance on investment and consolidation in our view, but its inclination to have fewer consumer-focused initiatives is a welcome development.