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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

Sky’s performance across 2021 significantly improved, driven in Q4 by a nice c.5% growth rate in UK consumer revenues and the advertising rebound, but effects of the pandemic are still being felt with EBITDA down 30% on 2019.

The decline in Group revenue accelerated in Q4 due to the severe shock to the Italian operation from its loss of most premium football coverage, although we see upsides in a possible rights reshuffle.

In 2022, Sky can leverage growth vectors including bigger content bundles, Glass, advertising innovations and broadband. Consolidating SVOD and telecoms markets may be more favourable to price increases.

Claire said "Amazon's growth is significant, but their options to maintain this growth are also more limited than Google's or Meta's were."

"Amazon's ad revenue comes largely from search and product listings using first-party data based on consumer purchases; this isn't directly comparable to Meta, which has access to a much broader range of user data, nor with Google, which comfortably outcompetes Amazon's ad products. Google will retain the edge as the internet's general search destination, despite Amazon trying to displace it as the first destination for commerce search, while YouTube captures a more diverse range of user interests and can support a much higher ad load than Prime Video."

Looking back, 2021 retail sales volume growth of 5% augurs well for sustaining real private consumption growth of about 5% this year, despite high inflation eating into disposable incomes

The pandemic shift to online in H1 2021, which boosted the share of online to over 30% of retail (excluding fuels), has degraded under hybrid work-from-home (WFH), which should anchor the share of online at about 25% in 2022

In a marked shift from the last ‘old normal’ of 2019, Black Friday’s extension throughout November sucked in December spend: advertisers will need to adjust their strategies to reflect the earlier seasonality of sales

BT had a solid Q3, with some mixed results but key metrics all improving, and a (perhaps unsurprisingly) slow post-lockdown recovery the only negative.

The price increase in April should drive dramatic (for BT) revenue and EBITDA acceleration at Consumer, Openreach and BT as a whole, and easily cover pressures within BT’s own cost base.

Longer-term growth is dependent on FTTP performance, which continues to look promising with improving metrics across the board in the quarter, and no news is good news in terms of ISPs signing with competitor networks.

Karen Egan, an analyst at Enders Analysis, said the Iliad offer was attractive. “Take the money and run,” she said of Vodafone. “That’s a very full takeover multiple and it definitely includes a share of the upside from consolidation,” referring to improved market conditions for companies operating in a market with fewer competitors.

She added that a sale to Iliad could potentially “resolve Vodafone’s leverage issues”, noting that even a sale valuing the business at 5.2 times ebitda could cut Vodafone’s net debt-to-ebitda ratio from 2.9 times at the end of the first half of the year to around 2.65 times.

“For me, the United Kingdom is off the agenda for DAZN,” says Francois Godard, a senior media and telecoms analyst at Enders Analysis. “They have a small operation, which they have in several countries with second and third-tier sports rights, and they can carry on doing that. To sell directly to consumers, you need real scale because consumers won’t bother otherwise."

“If I were in the management in DAZN, I would not spend too much time worrying about the UK. I would have a country manager trying to do the best with what they have in the UK, because this territory will not drive their business at this point.

"Amazon is also growing and is likely to grow further in the UK as a sports broadcaster. In that context, DAZN had one opportunity and it did not work.

Iliad has reportedly tabled a bid for Vodafone's Italian operations—unsurprising given challenges in that market for both players.

Press reports appear to be a concerted effort to pressure Vodafone to deal. There is the potential to resolve Vodafone's leverage issues, but there are implications for Vantage Towers.

Regulatory approval remains very much in question, but it makes sense to test the system with the potential for very positive read-through elsewhere. If a deal can be struck, it will likely be just the beginning of a long and checkered road.

While most streamers are already spending enough to meet the investment obligations relatively easily, François Godard of Enders Analysis warned that may change.



“At some point in the future, where they are in a position they need to cut a bit and fall back on a more sustainable model, it becomes a burden,” he said. “The regulation has thrown sand in the engine.”