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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

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Mobile sector returns are low, particularly for smaller-scale operators, with H3G earning less than its cost of capital. Regulatory initiatives, spectrum auctions and 5G look set to worsen this picture as H3G strives to gain viable scale

Back-book pricing is crucial to the returns of fixed challengers. Regulatory intervention is likely to lead to a waterbed effect in the fixed sector and exacerbate challenges in mobile

New entrant business case in full fibre is limited to de facto monopoly opportunities. There is the potential for BT’s returns to increase markedly if it gets full fibre right but new entrants’ inferior economics are unlikely to offer sufficient investor appeal

Financial Times

7 October 2019

Julian Aquilina was quoted in the FT on the appointment of David Pemsel as new CEO at the Premier League. Julian said “[The Premier League] is hoping that he will come up with a new model and address the decline in broadcast advertising revenue"

Media coverage of women’s sport escalated this summer thanks to the 2019 FIFA Women’s World Cup, which ignited national interest. The Lionesses attracted an exceptional peak TV audience of 11.8 million for England’s semi-final match against the USA

Still, coverage of women's sport remains minimal outside of major events: only 4% of printed sports articles reference female athletes. Quality press are leading the way—the launch of Telegraph Women’s Sport being the prime example—but the popular press are yet to follow

Freely-accessible coverage will generate greater interest and audiences for women’s sport, but continuous investment from all media will be needed to fulfil its potential

Broadcaster video on demand (BVOD) advertising is in demand with an £89m rise in 2018 spend to £391m, and is predicted to double within the next six years

The rise of on-demand viewing has created a scaled advertising proposition with a strong 16-34 profile – a relief for both broadcasters and advertisers, given the long-term decline in linear TV impacts for younger audiences

Big challenges remain: linear TV ad loads look excessive in on-demand, BVOD CPTs can be off-puttingly high, and measurement is still unresolved. BVOD is a welcome bright spot which faces online video competition head-on, but it won’t be able to turn broadcasters’ fortunes around alone

Financial Times

3 October 2019

Douglas McCabe was quoted in the Financial Times on Premier League picks Guardian’s David Pemsel as new chief. Douglas credited Mr Pemsel with leading the Guardian’s move to charge its readers, something that its journalists had been heavily against.  “He said it is not enough to say that we are writing great journalism, we need to run a business and break even or better — and that is more or less what he achieved."

The UK TV advertising market, in decline since mid-2016, could benefit from a liberalisation of advertising minutage if Ofcom reviews COSTA and decides to make changes

Broadcasters could gain from the flexibility to devote up to 20% of peaktime minutes to advertising under the EU’s revised Audiovisual Media Services Directive (AVMSD)

Ofcom could also level the playing field between PSB and non-PSB channels, although more minutes of advertising on TV is unlikely to inverse the medium’s decline

The Times

16 September 2019

Douglas McCabe was quoted in The Times on Why glossy magazines need to turn over a new leaf. Douglas said “Circulations have fallen away quite dramatically, and yet the vast majority of magazines have stayed in print. Publishers have been able to take out substantial costs and maintain a profitable business. Those magazines won’t survive in the long-term. The survivors will be the ones where their publisher has bravely stuck to their guns and invested in journalism despite the heavy downturn in circulation and advertising. Readers recognise when a magazine has been invested in.”

Market revenue growth bounced back to all of 1% in Q2 after near zero in the previous quarter, with broadband volumes at a near standstill

Operators appear resigned to this however, with new customer pricing appearing to recover, and wholesale price cuts not to be repeated

On the downside, further regulatory and commercial pressure on existing customer pricing is likely, and pricing détentes are often short lived

Financial Times

13 September 2019

Joseph Evans was quoted in the FT on Google's move to adjust its search algorithms to promote news articles it considers “significant original reporting”, its latest move to support journalism following years of criticism of its role in the industry’s decline. Joseph Evans  said: “Search is the engine of Google’s revenue, which means the team behind it has a lot of power and can stop internal attempts to fiddle with the algorithms.” 

“This move is to address the longstanding complaint that instant online publishing removes the incentive for publishers to invest in original reporting as everyone can have the story straight away,” he said, adding that Google was trying to address concerns about the economics of online news.

“Of course, Google deciding who should get rewarded for what kind of reporting is going to be controversial, so it will have to proceed in careful dialogue with news providers,” Mr Evans added