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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

Mobile service revenue nudged into growth territory for the first time since the pandemic as a resurgent mobility boost combined with returning roaming revenues.

Q2 looks set to deliver a more convincing growth filip with inflation-linked price rises boosting by 2-5ppts, and a stronger roaming bounce for seasonal reasons.

The picture is not entirely rosy, however, with already discernible B2B headwinds and inevitable consumer bargain-hunting on the horizon.

The market looked superficially healthy in Q1, with revenue and broadband volume growth both maintained at 2%.

However, net adds trends suggest that consumers are becoming more bargain seeking, and prices have become more competitive into Q2.

The April price increases will support growth in the short term, but this boost may not last long if the cost-of-living crisis persists.

Tom said Britons watched on average 8.1 minutes of the channel a day in 2021, compared with 7.9 minutes in 2018. “That might not sound like a massive shift, but the whole industry has dropped about 10 per cent."

He added “Sacrificing younger viewers for older viewers is one of the major reasons for Channel 5’s success — they’re avoiding a demographic that is rapidly lowering its engagement with TV. The question is how sustainable is that? Paramount will be thinking, ‘Maybe by then, everyone will have Paramount Plus and we’ll transfer from the linear [non-streaming] world.’

“With Channel 5, they’re living in the now and squeezing out as much value as they can, while their rivals are transitioning their viewer online at a faster pace.”

James said "Some of them may start to run out of money. They will all have a certain amount of debt funding, and there will be covenants on that debt, which will be the trigger point."

"There is also an issue with consolidation. We are talking about companies that have got significantly less than 300,000 homes passed - some of them less than 50,000. Is it worth doing an acquisition for a company that is just a few weeks build time [for bigger players]? Some of them are just too small to be worth the bother."

James said there may be an element of signalling from the Government that further moves from Altice will be examined very carefully. "This move makes clear if it wasn't beforehand that a full takeover - or full control - would be very difficult."

"It is hard to think of a company the laws surrounding takeovers are more directed to than BT. The company does things it cannot talk about for the Government. It's hugely important for the resilience of telecoms networks. Not only is it the biggest, but it does a lot of the underlying systems and connections. And it also offers security services through Global. It probably registers in three different ways for the Government."