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Rigorous Fearless Independent

BT Group’s revenue growth surged in Q1 to 1%, the first time it has been positive in five years, with a stronger than expected boost from the April price rises partially offset by the Virgin Mobile MVNO loss.

EBITDA growth, however, actually dipped to 2%, with little operating leverage due to cost pressures, although the company is still very confident in its full year EBITDA guidance (which implies 4% growth).

BT is far from immune to macroeconomic pressures, with pressure on costs, corporate revenue and signs of a sharp dip in broadband market growth, but it is well placed to deal with them given strong growth at Consumer and Openreach.

VMO2 struggled to fully capitalise on its price increases this quarter, with much of the benefits absorbed by retention discounts and tariff pressure.

EBITDA growth of 4% is nonetheless a solid result in a challenging market and guidance looks achievable, albeit not as easily as it previously did.

The opaque nature of the relationship with the new network company makes it difficult to establish whether VMO2 is capitalising on the current glut of speculative infrastructure investment, or is at risk of being a victim of it.

Claire said “The new model keeps the show on the road but there is no leeway for future commitment."

“It’s an extremely short-sighted move. Just look at how the BBC turned the 2012 [London] Olympics into a global performance, reigniting tourism to the UK and making an enormous financial contribution. The BBC was planning for years for that event.”

She added “The British system is ginormous and the French don’t quite have the same understanding of the role they play in the world."

Douglas said the news business “desperately needs and wants more innovation."

“The news media today looks identical to the news media in 1990. The news format looks the same, the [big] brands are the same,” McCabe said, pointing to the struggles experienced by start-ups launched in the 2000s such as BuzzFeed that tried to shake up the industry.

He added  “Over the last three or four years, those businesses look like they turned a corner . . . media has become investable again.”

Jamie said “Google Search and Amazon ads have led the pack this quarter, which is an expected flight to safety by advertisers prioritizing short-term return on investment. The search and e-commerce havens are also sheltered from the effects of Apple’s privacy changes since they are largely contextual and close to the point of purchase. That resilience contrasts with the weakness shown by Meta, Snap, YouTube and Twitter.”

He added "If you look at absolute growth, what agencies are reporting isn’t inconsistent with the platforms’ results."

Douglas said he was unsurprised by the initial findings for the first quarter of 2022. “It was always going to be great,” he said, especially compared to the lockdowns that haunted the same period in 2021.

“Advertising spend is moving closer and closer to transaction, and retreating away from big brand campaigns that are all about profits and emphasising brand coolness."

The UK economy is going sideways as the cost-of-living crisis dents retail volumes—a predictor of GDP—as consumers have little choice but to cut back on purchases of essential categories sharply hit by soaring prices

The financial gulf between high- and low-earning households is being driven by inflation, with a fifth of households now unable to afford essentials

GDP growth in May—achieved through rapid digitisation and pent-up demand for travel and transportation services—masks stalling consumer-facing services. The UK economy is likely to record the most drastic slump of all G7 economies in 2023

Francois said he perceived TF1 and M6’s statements to be a “bargaining strategy” to apply pressure on the French Competition Authorities and have them greenlight the merger without too many conditions.

“M6 and TF1 have been arguing from the start that this merger was crucial to create a major French media group and face off the competition from global platforms, so here they’re alerting the market that if the regulators are setting the bar too high with conditions, they will not bend over."