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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

The press industry lost £1 billion off the topline from the calamitous decline in print revenues due to pandemic-related mobility restrictions, partly offset by gains on digital subscriptions, much harder to precisely size in revenue terms.

Trapped at home for the most part, online traffic to BBC News and news publisher services boomed. Popular news sites marginally grew digital advertising while the quality nationals attracted 800,000 new paying subscribers to reach nearly three million in 2020.

The outlook for 2021, in the transition to the ‘new normal’, is mixed. Consumer work patterns and news, information and entertainment habits are unlikely to ‘bounce back’ to pre-pandemic levels, placing free commuter titles at particular risk. Signs of confidence through online innovation are welcome.

Julian said "The Premier League has secured a very, very significant, substantial increase on the previous deal. On what was effectively a billion US dollar deal over the course of six years, it is now at $2.7 billion over the course of six years."

"That’s a two-and-a-half- to three-times increase in the value of the rights in the US which is very, very healthy and which the Premier League really needs to do because the revenue that it's getting from domestic broadcasters, the domestic rights, is basically factored down. In terms of the prospects going forward for the Premier League, it is basically all about trying to expand its revenues and gross revenues abroad, particularly in America." 

Whilst we remain sceptical of the churn reduction benefits of fixed/mobile convergence, the pandemic and a more astute approach from the operators is enhancing the case for it in the UK.

Creating the impression of a giveaway whilst minimizing the effective discount is key, as is extracting any loyalty and cost benefits.

Even if well executed, any upsides are likely to be modest. Operators are right to keep discounts to a minimum and to avoid M&A premia predicated on fixed/mobile convergence synergies.

Streaming had a strong 2021 with royalties to rightsholders, labels and music publishers increasing by 24% to $16.9 billion (IFPI). Spotify drove the segment’s rise as the leading service by users and subscribers (422m and 182m) followed by subscription services Apple Music and Amazon Prime Music, while YouTube is both ad-supported and subscription

Spotify’s 2021 revenue growth of 22% was powered by user growth (+18%) around the world on the subscription (16%) and ad-supported tiers (19%). User growth represented a deceleration from the pandemic-induced exceptional rise of 27% from 2019 to 2020

Spotify reports royalties generated by artists on its Loud and Clear platform. The number of artists in 2021 generating material revenues—over $10,000—increased by 24% to 52,600. 28% are ‘self-distributing artists’ using services such as Distrokid, TuneCore, CD Baby—the number almost trebled since 2017

 

 

 

Tom said "Whatever its viewing figures, TalkTV's influence is likely to be disproportionate to them. It will still have a hand in setting the news agenda and give News UK a chance to showcase their journalism. So, they will be able to define success quite broadly."

"I think if linear viewing is going badly then they will point to their digital impressions," he says. "While they may fall back on that, the lion's share of their revenues are going to be from the linear TV ad market. That has to perform well for this to be a success." 

Claire said the super-rich have long sought to buy newspapers to help push their agendas and it was now possible to “count on one hand the big media brands that aren’t owned by an oligarch or other billionaire."

“It’s another sign that the super-wealthy wish to control assets that give them an extra level of power. Whatever they may say, that’s the reason why they buy them."

She added “It is now unusual for major news media not to be owned by a billionaire, and that is why the Guardian [owned by the independent Scott Trust], the Financial Times [owned by the employee-owned Japanese media group Nikkei] and the BBC are consistently shown to be the most trusted news brands.”

Gill said it was too early to judge whether the channel owned by Mr Murdoch's News UK will be a success.

"TalkTV isn't a standalone TV station. It is just one aspect of what News UK wants to do in terms of their multi-media approach going forwards."

"Whatever your audience is on the first night, you would expect it to drop massively – especially as they started with Trump. I think they have some good guests coming up over the next few weeks, so I think you will see it building over a period of time."

"And it doesn't just matter what the audience is like in the UK, but also what it is like in America and Australia [where Piers Morgan Uncensored will also be broadcast]."