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Rigorous Fearless Independent

Karen Egan, a senior telecoms analyst at Enders Analysis, said Lebara would “attract a high [ebitda] multiple” as MVNOs have low levels of capital expenditure and are becoming “very attractive” to network operators because of their subscriber bases.

“I think that multiples could be higher now given the strength of the MVNOs both in terms of growth trajectory and ability to move between network operators,” Egan added.

Karen Egan, a senior telecoms analyst at Enders Analysis, said governments were becoming increasingly wary of allowing significant foreign influence over incumbent telecoms operators.

But she said Middle Eastern companies saw a chance to enhance their reputations by being associated with a “reasonably leading-edge, sizeable company” such as Telefónica. The United Arab Emirates group e& already has a stake in Vodafone.

“It’s very difficult to work out whether it’s the format, presenter or both when a new format doesn’t work – TV isn’t as close and confessional as radio, so there isn’t a TV equivalent to Ken Bruce,” says Tom Harrington, analyst at Enders Analysis. “But with Question of Sport there was clearly an audience response to the retooling, including the insulting name change, as the viewing drop over the past two seasons was quite precipitous, even for 2023. It’s not that Paddy McGuinness is a bad presenter, it’s just that he and the other changes chafed too much with the audience’s long-bedded expectations the show. The reasons for the BBC wanting to do this are obvious, but the futility of the attempt was completely predictable.”

“This operation would have a good chance of stopping the price war because Iliad would become a small part of Vodafone,” explains François Godard, analyst at Enders, who emphasizes, however, that any consolidation movement will have to be validated by Brussels and that ;there are therefore uncertainties. Iliad could also have to battle with Swisscom, present in the peninsula via Fastweb and interested in Vodafone in Italy.

“Just as Italy was a pioneer in mobile telephony with prepaid plans, it is trying an interesting and unique experiment with this operation,” explains François Godard. Potentially, it is a way of pooling operators' network expenses and giving them oxygen. But everything remains to be drawn, the result is uncertain.

Iliad has made an attractive offer for Vodafone Italy, to initially form a joint venture but to ultimately give Iliad the right to buy Vodafone's stake.

Vodafone management may be more keen on a less transformative, but easier, deal with Fastweb, retaining Vodafone's presence in Italy.

Iliad's announcement is likely aimed at highlighting to shareholders and the Vodafone board that a more value-creative deal is on the table, even if management appetite is not there for it just yet.

That could marginally decrease the ads’ effectiveness but isn’t a massive threat, according to Joseph Teasdale, head of tech at London-based research outfit Enders Analysis. “The search side of the business is fine. Ninety percent of the effectiveness is in the keywords,” Teasdale said. Amazon took in more than $30 billion in ad revenue in the first nine months of this year.