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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

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Rich in twists and turns, the saga of the sale of the Telegraph takes place in a context of great turmoil for the British press. For many observers, this is a form of litmus test () for the real value influential newspapers in the digital age. “It’s true, confirms the managing director of Enders Analysis, Douglas McCabe, a recognized expert in the media industry across the Channel,  the battle of the 'Telegraph' serves as a litmus test for the 'quality' British press. in a pivotal period of upsurge.

For Alice Enders, one of the best Enders Analysis experts, the path remains complicated for the Redbird IMI tandem. “But the operation is likely to succeed because the United Emirates are very important allies of the British government and have promised to invest 10 billion pounds in five years in the UK.”She is confident the deal will go ahead, even if Paul Marshall still enjoys significant political support.

The UK’s ‘zombie’ economy—largely flat since March 2022—is due to the cost-of-living crisis weighing on households, with this exacerbated in 2023 by the rising cost of credit. Real private expenditure growth will be weakly positive in 2024 before strengthening in 2025 as headwinds recede

Our 2023 forecast of a nominal rise but real decline in display advertising was realised, with TV’s revenues falling while digital display rose. Advertiser spend online is justified by the channel’s size and growth, worth an estimated £406 billion in 2023

For 2024, much lower inflation and mildly positive real private expenditure growth points to 3-4% display advertising growth, with a stronger recovery anticipated in 2025

The Premier League deal will help to guarantee Sky’s future by removing a risk to its TV subscription base, even as the cost of living crisis is hitting the mobile and broadband market.



Under Strong’s three-year tenure, the broadcaster had been able to bring its US parent “on board with Sky’s objectives” — including signing the cheque for more than £5bn for the rights.

 

Service revenue growth was broadly flat this quarter as some unwinding of price increases was compensated by a pickup in roaming revenues.

Vodafone has made some progress on its turnaround plan: it has sold its ailing Spanish unit; is rumoured to be in talks about a deal in Italy; and its German business is (just) back to growth (for now).

We expect muted guidance for 2024 with lower prospective price increases for most, inflated cost bases, and continued consolidation uncertainty.

Ofcom’s plan to ban inflation-linked price rises creates a headache for most operators, but the financial hit will not be felt for years, if then (depending on their replacement).

Ofcom is correct in pointing out some of the drawbacks of the practice, but it will likely be replaced by an alternative tactic that may well end up being worse for consumers.

The unintended consequences could be significant, with a period of uncertainty for operators, low-end plans less appealing to offer, and poor signaling to investors in the sector.

The English Premier League is able to generate billions of pounds from its overseas television deals, while other European leagues have lagged well behind. According to figures from Enders Analysis, the Premier League earns more than €2bn a year from its international rights, compared with about €200mn for the Bundesliga. Many German club executives believe more needs to be done to build a global following. 

Senior telecoms analyst at Enders, Karen Egan, said the Vodafone dividend is “certainly the one most at risk” but more due to recent operational pressures than rising rates yet. 

“The sector as a whole has really been struggling over the past few years with revenues usually in decline, and where there is any revenue growth, it is way below inflation,” Egan told City A.M

“Add to that the cost of 5G and fibre roll-out, it is hardly surprising that dividends are under pressure, even before accounting for the headwind of rising rates,” she explained.

There are, broadly speaking, two reasons for that. One is simple: The status quo works for the league. “They are too happy with the deals they have made” to start experimenting, said Francois Godard, a senior media and telecoms analyst at Enders Analysis. The Premier League is the richest, most coveted and most popular sports league in the world. There is not, Godard said, “an incentive to try things.”

It is testament to the increasingly evident symbiosis between the Premier League and Sky: The league needs its loyal, longstanding broadcast partner, but not nearly as much as the broadcaster needs the league. “Sky is more dependent on the Premier League than any other pay TV operator is on any sport elsewhere,” Godard said.