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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

It adds to a gloomy picture for the future of sports rights and Adam Dalrymple, a research analyst who specialises in the field for Enders Analysis, says the Premier League is entering the market at a difficult time.

“The Premier League has its work cut out for it to match the £5.1bn they raised last time,” he told i.

“All its potential bidders are in cost-cutting mode, inflation has hit consumer demand and other flagship football rights auctions in Europe have struggled to reach their revenue targets in recent months.

“However, the Premier League rights remain the most effective engine for driving pay-TV subscriptions in the UK ahead of this upcoming auction.”

The sale of the Telegraph Media Group (TMG) gets a boost from its 2022 Trading Statement, including steadily rising profits, and visibility for 2023 subscriptions

TMG has built out its digital reader revenues, rapidly closing on one million subscriptions—setting the business on a more sustainable path

The sale of TMG and The Spectator will reach its highest valuation if appetite to own these assets sharpens and widens the range of buyers that will bid

 

When the sale was announced, Douglas McCabe, CEO and director of publishing and tech at Enders Analysis, told the Standard that the economics for City AM as a free print publication were “challenging”, and so a buyer would need a plan to elevate its online offering.

“Commuters — particularly commuters into the City — have remained stubbornly low post-pandemic, and the impressive corporate advertising that City AM carved out for itself in the late 2000s and early 2010s has also declined,” he said. “The unit costs of printing and distribution exploded in 2021 and 2022, and have not returned to pre-Ukraine levels.

“Any buyer would need a belief and vision for the brand as an online use-case."

Vodafone's headline revenue growth of +3.7% is actually a small decline once Rest of World exchange depreciation is accounted for. Europe, however, delivered an improving revenue trend to +0.4%, as signalled at Vodafone's FY results announcement.

The mix and operating trends are less positive, with growth driven by low-margin B2B, and subscriber losses accelerating in German fixed. Investors will be weighing up whether these results are green shoots of a recovery or another false dawn.

Although the company may reach its guided EBITDA on assumed exchange rates, it looks set to fall short in euro terms, which has implications for FCF and dividend cover.