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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

Karen Egan, senior telecoms analyst at Enders Analysis, said the telecoms industry is "a very tough place" right now.

"Virgin Media O2 are particularly likely to be cutting jobs as they're still going through the integration process, but it's tough for all these companies right now," she said.

"Revenues aren't really growing, but costs certainly are... because they're having to upgrade to 5G and to fibre and all of that requires investment. Those costs can't be avoided."

 

Douglas McCabe at Enders said: “This momentum will help leverage its valuation, though multiple bidders will always be the critical ingredient.”



Analysts at Enders added that potential buyers included UK and non-UK media groups, private equity investors, wealthy UK individuals interested in acquiring a “trophy” asset close to the Conservative party, or non-UK individuals.

“It’s obviously bad because it throws into doubt the reliability of the organisation and the governance,” says François Godard, an analyst at Enders Analysis.

“It has the immediate effect of forcing the company to scrutinise everything. You stop all your dealings, you stop all new contracts, you look at existing contracts and you have to run checks on all supply agreements.”

Godard adds: “Even if in a few months’ time we see that it was limited to one person and a few suppliers, in the meantime the whole business has been disrupted.”

The Nordic pay-TV group is under severe financial stress after its stock crashed, dropping its market cap to just over 9% of its 2021 peak value, on top of increasing and unsustainable losses and debt.

Viaplay announced a full U-turn on its previous approach driven by international sports rights and Nordic noir series.

Following the results, Vivendi’s Canal+ bought a 12% stake, eyeing Viaplay's still healthy Nordic business and consolidation in Poland.

Francois Godard of Enders Analysis underlined the importance for payment platforms to “ know their customers. It is necessary that this simple diktat be followed by payment companies, understood as credit card companies. They shift the responsibility to the banks that have direct contact with consumers and potential pirates. And yet -he highlighted- the same is not applied for example in the porn industry, where controls are carried out: there is a different awareness of illegal industries in some countries."

Douglas McCabe, media analyst at Enders, said the growth of social media as a dominant news source raised questions over trust and reliability of information.

“The hierarchy and curation of discoverable content are not designed by news and information media, but by different criteria,” he said. “This reduces the influence and impact of news brands that invest in expensive journalism, with obvious implications for the economics of media and democracy itself.”

Social tariffs have provided relief for some at a time of household income squeeze and otherwise unavoidable high inflation-driven telco price increases.

Adoption has risen but remains very low, limiting their effectiveness, and more widespread adoption would expose their shortcomings, with the risk of penalizing low cost operators and significantly increasing prices for non-adopters (by up to 20%).

A better approach might be to recognize that affordability issues are narrower but deeper than current social tariffs can address, with fuller, centrally funded subsidies targeted more narrowly at those most in need.

The three planks of Netflix's strategy to stoke growth are beginning to pick up pace: pricing optimisation, charging of non-paying users and advertising are returning benefits, if at different rates. For Q2, Netflix announced growth of 5.9 million subscribers (+8% YoY) with revenues growing but at a slower rate ($1.83 billion, +2.7% YoY)

Netflix's advertising tier remains predictably peripheral. However the restructuring of its product offering and an influx of potential new subscribers who find themselves kicked out of other accounts could result in the company beginning to present to advertisers what they really want: viewers that they cannot reach easily elsewhere, if not yet at scale

The published draft Media Bill does not appear to present major issues for Netflix from a compliance standpoint, however, a clearer understanding of what "appropriate prominence" for the PSBs means is needed to calculate the impact on the streamer's access to viewers