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“The dominant tech player doesn’t get out competed,” says Joseph Teasdale of Enders Analysis. “They become redundant as new tech comes along.”
Francois Godard, senior media analyst at Enders, cautions that such mergers and acquisitions are not always straightforward. “We’ve seen it’s not so easy to build European coalitions that work,” he says, citing RTL’s sale of Channel 5 in 2010, or Mediaset which he says is “doing fine in Italy and Spain” but was “never able to build synergies.”
Service revenue growth flat-lined at -1% this quarter. The operators’ year-to-date net adds remain in negative territory while the MVNOs have taken more than 1 million
The accounting treatment of the new, absolute, in-contract price increases will provide something of a boost to some operators this year, but worsen the trend next year, particularly for BT/EE
The likely Vodafone/Three merger will be the primary theme for the industry in 2025 and beyond, putting upward pressure on capex levels industry-wide
Compared to other sectors, books have seen real-term declines in the average selling price since the mid-2000s. If books had maintained pricing parity, the average selling price in 2023 would have been £12.11
The book-to-screen pipeline will likely remain strong despite the streaming content slowdown. Of the top 250 Netflix shows in 2023, 18% were based on books, and these shows accounted for an even larger share of watch time (21%)
In the online world, YouTube, TikTok and Reddit have supplanted the author interview in a bookshop or magazine reviews as vehicles for discovery, while the greatest risk associated with Spotify is that they lose interest (and investment) in the audiobook world entirely
This makes it difficult to say whether The Rings Of Power will ever make a profit, according to Tom Harrington of media researchers Enders Analysis.
'Given the structure of the streaming model, it is almost impossible to robustly attribute profitability to any single piece of content, unless a massive volume of incremental sign-ups that go straight to the show can be identified or there is a clear link between viewing of the program and other revenue streams.
'Given the wild costs of Rings Of Power, subdued viewing figures (at least in the US and the UK), and the perennial inability of Amazon to create pathways between Prime Video and shopping, it's highly unlikely that Amazon is getting a strong return on its investment in the show.'
“The Telegraph is a slightly odd commercial prospect because it has been in the Bardo – the place between death and rebirth – for years now,” Alice Enders, head of research at media analyst firm Enders Analysis, tells City AM. “Lloyds effectively took control of it in mid-2023, since when there has effectively been no owner.”
“The regulatory hurdles for any potential proprietor of a national news outlet are huge,” says Enders. “Ofcom takes these public interest tests super seriously. They take time. The Secretary of State and the regulator will need to make a decision, not just on the nominal owner, but also the individuals or institutions that are backing him or her.
“Indeed, the first aspect of that process will be Ofcom taking a very close look at the source of money that Efune – or whoever the successful suitor is – has compiled to make a bid.”
The Premier League’s international media rights are now worth more than the domestic rights, so taking over their sale “may be a clever move”, says Francois Godard of Enders Analysis, but he believes they still need broadcasters.
“I don’t see D2C [direct to consumer] as the future of football. Maybe it’s an option you can use in certain markets” as leverage to derive bigger bids from media companies, he adds.
Another major trend in US sports is for long-term partnerships between leagues and broadcasters, which encourage the latter to invest in promoting the former.
“I don’t believe the NFL and NBA D2C platforms are a substitute for sales to broadcasters,” says Godard. “They are a nice tool and a way to reach core fans.”
Research by Enders Analysis shows that between 2022 and 2023 the average age of Channel 4’s biggest hits was nine years. For ITV, this figure stood at 11.
Tom Harrington, the head of television at Enders Analysis, says: “This is one of those metrics that can be taken both ways. Reliance on older formats seems the antithesis of innovation. But at the same time, surely it’s a good thing if you have a show that commands strong audiences for 10-plus years?”
Europe is also expected to have its own M&A reckoning. “The climate calls for consolidation,” says François Godard, senior media and telecom analyst at Enders Analysis.
But whereas studios such as Warner Bros. Discovery, Sony and Lionsgate are expected to be active in one way or another in the United States, across the pond the production sector is likely ground zero. “These producers in Europe have enjoyed the Golden Age of the past 10 years,” says the Italy-based Godard. “But it’s over.”