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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.
Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.
Service revenue growth was flat at 1.9% this quarter—a reasonable performance considering waning boosts from roaming and UK price rises, and a challenging macroeconomic backdrop.
Looking ahead, operators in most markets are now implementing price rises, providing a welcome (albeit transitory) tailwind to revenue growth—although EBITDA momentum remains subdued.
We expect a consolidation deal to be announced between Vodafone UK and H3G in the coming weeks and a decision from the EC on the Orange/MásMóvil deal in August—crucial issues for the sector’s prospects.
Tom Standen-Jewell, of the media consultant Enders Analysis, told i: “Although TalkTV has been driving engagement across social platforms for [Mr Murdoch’s company] News UK, it still seems reliant on one star man – Piers Morgan – for viewing and in terms of generating headlines.
“The majority of TalkTV’s traffic on YouTube appears to be going to viral interviews on the Piers Morgan Uncensored channel rather than TalkTV’s.”
He added Despite its promotion of in-house journalists, we believe TalkTV is not a comparable funnel to The Sun or The Times; the average consumer is unlikely to be aware that these two national newspapers are owned by one publisher, let alone other brands within News UK.”
Alice Enders, at Enders Analysis, said the fact that English is such a global language will always keep the UK on the front foot.
She added: 'There is also a pool of educated young people who have all the right skillsets.'
But Enders emphasised that the data is more complicated than it first appears as the Office for National Statistics does not provide a detailed breakdown. As well as direct ad sales, it includes conferences and events, making it more difficult to gauge the impact of specific parts of the industry.
“Proprietors entering the news agenda — or at least being seen to do so — is never a winning formula,” said Douglas McCabe, who covers media at the research group Enders Analysis. “The key question is whether it will affect his relationship with KKR, measured by asset reputational damage.”
McCabe said that, for now, the damage “feels containable” but he added: “It won’t have done him any favours.”
Recorded music streaming revenues rose 11% in 2022 and we estimate Spotify’s contribution at 1/3—Spotify added 25 million Premium Subscribers in 2022, growing its recording and publishing payouts to the music industry to $8-9 billion.
Spotify’s Loud & Clear resource shows that the long tail of artists generating royalties between $1,000 and $10,000, of which many are self-distributing, rose 16% to 175,500—75% of all those generating over $1,000.
Spotify’s open platform for uploads grew the long tail to over 100 million tracks in 2022. Major labels are seeking to change the pro rata royalty payout model on Premium to address the siphoning of royalties by fake music, clips and bots—a looming threat to creators is AI-generated music.
Joseph Teasdale was quoted in the Financial Times on "Closure of BuzzFeed News marks end of an era for digital media"
21 April 2023Analysts say BuzzFeed got the market economics for news wrong. Joseph Teasdale, head of technology at Enders Analysis, said BuzzFeed bet that free journalism distributed by large tech platforms with their wider audiences would bring in profits, but instead, the advertising money stayed with their bigger rivals.
“We are at the end of the tide turning for these groups. They were valued incorrectly as tech groups — making news content is expensive,” he said.
Analysts say the future of profitable news is likely to be behind a paywall. “Can you support a digital newsroom just through digital advertising? The evidence suggests not,” said Teasdale.
The total value of European football media rights has stagnated since the end of the last decade, translating into a real terms decline.
New entrants like DAZN and Amazon have occupied the space left open by incumbents such as Sky and Canal+.
Serie A, Ligue 1 and the Premier League will tender rights this year, entertaining unrealistic expectations of bids from Apple.
The gaming industry is sometimes touted as an example of how micropayments can work. Gaming and news, however, do not have much in common, says Joseph Teasdale of media analysts Enders.
While the economics of gaming is supported by a small fraction of heavy users that will spend hundreds of dollars per month on in-game currency, “you’re not going to find someone who’s spending $1,000 a month on news articles,” he says.
While companies like Axate and other micropayments platforms are solving some of the technological hurdles, a widespread solution is still elusive.
“It will probably take quite a large shift to to make the micropayments model viable for more media. You want a standard payments protocol that enables very small payments that everyone was using all the time and for it to be low friction, highly familiar and for it to be a kind of approved model,” says Teasdale.