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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

These plans for European consolidation seem subject to a domino effect across the regulatory landscape. Combined with the French decision, this latest rejection “has sealed the future of an RTL/ProSieben merger,” says François Godard, Senior Media and Telecoms Analyst at Enders Analysis. “For RTL, the ultimate catch was consolidation in Germany. This was fatally wounded by the failure of the merger in France. I don’t think that a success in the Netherlands would have changed that.”

“Bertelsmann/RTL were already rethinking their approach,” adds Godard. “Their underlying analysis of the impact of the digital platforms is right, they must devise a new strategy in response.”

Analyst Francois Godard says that after the setbacks, Bertelsmann will "take a deep breath and come back with an action plan." One cannot criticize Thomas Rabe for remaining stuck in the past. "RTL has thought ahead more than most other private broadcasters in Europe when it comes to digital challenges ." Such an approach is necessary in a disruptive market.

This week it sold its Newbury HQ and will lease back part of the campus. But as Karen Egan, head of mobile at Enders Analysis, points out: 'Vodafone is a bit of a tanker – it will take some time to turn around.'

Egan says: 'Other operators like Orange and 02 seem hungrier.'

She added that anyone backing Vodafone should be ready for another share price reverse, if the new CEO makes a debut statement, 'kitchen-sinking' all the company's shortcomings. But she is more sanguine about the dividend, saying: 'It may seem to some the sort of dividend that could be cut. But in my view it is sustainable as the big calls on Vodafone's cash are past.'

High inflation ahead of wage increases and higher interest rates are combining to provoke a mild recession in real consumption expenditure in 2023. Consumers are  sustaining spend to a degree by depleting their financial firepower, promising a mild recovery in 2024.

UK display advertising will again lag consumption growth in 2023. Online display is growing much slower after a giddy two years. Incumbents are challenged, particularly for higher-funnel spend, but the long-term fundamentals remain: economy and society are moving online.

While TV revenue will decline in 2023, its effectiveness for advertisers ensures it is well placed to benefit from any recovery. Digital revenues will see growth this year.

“The justification for the transaction was paper thin but it had the merit of forming a long-term financial umbrella over publications that are vulnerable,” said Claire Enders, founder of Enders Analysis and a longtime Murdoch watcher.

“Protecting the future of titles of great sentimental and political value might have been a motivation shared by few of those involved. Rupert Murdoch did not have convincing arguments for value add. Breaking up the News Corp stable is likely to release more value for shareholders in due course. We are always sympathetic to protecting plurality but it isn’t an argument the stock market has any time for.”

Jamie MacEwan, senior media analyst at Enders, explained that TikTok execs’ use of heating (which is boosting videos into users’ “For You” pages to achieve a more ideal number of views), confirms the TikTok team’s awareness of some of the drawbacks of having a very aggressive personalization engine — its lauded special algorithm — and so this is a way for them to account for those drawbacks in some way.