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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.
Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.
Alice Enders was quoted in The Telegraph on the block to the Penguin Random House and Simon & Schuster merger
2 November 2022Alice Enders says a second bid would be a logical move for the Australian media mogul. She also points to potential interest from Lagadere, the owner of French publisher Hachette.
Enders said the Penguin decision was an unfortunate setback, adding that the deal would have given Bertelsmann a powerful position in the US market. She argues that the major issue is the German group’s focus on old media such as books, magazines and free-to-air television, which has left it struggling to build scale in developed markets with tough competition regimes.
“This is an old media company,” Enders says.
“When you’re in something of a pressured old media industry then you’ve got to look for scale.”
60% of Chinese online ad spend is directly driven by ecommerce, compared to 40% in the West. The gap will close as content and ads move closer to transactions.
General search engines are not central to the customer journey in China: Baidu fell below 10% of online advertising last year, compared to Google’s c.55% share in the UK.
The Chinese model now has a vector to the rest of the world in the form of TikTok, whose parent company ByteDance added more retail GMV in China than Alibaba last year. TikTok wants to grow video shopping in the West, targeting a huge $470 billion in transactions by 2027.
Crisis government in the UK: Implications for TMT
31 October 2022The new Truss/Hunt tandem is a needed response to the crisis affecting the credibility of the UK Government in global financial markets over its decisions on economic policy, although it will take time to re-establish credibility and stability
The cost-of-living crisis is inexorably widening from goods and services to the interest rates paid by Government, businesses, and households, exacerbating the recessionary trend of the economy
Implications for UK TMT range from the recession in advertising expenditure in2023, to the delay of the Media Bill (including the privatisation of Channel 4), alongside complications for mergers and acquisitions of UK companies
News Corp and Fox Corp merger: Re-uniting media and video
30 October 2022Rupert Murdoch is seeking to merge News Corp and Fox Corp, split up a decade ago, to create greater corporate scale and streamline management.
A recombined News Corp would generate revenues of c.$24 billion based on fiscal 2022 results, with EBITDA of $4.6 billion, and an enterprise value in the region of $25-26 billion.
An additional rationale for News Corp is the financial protection of cherished news brands such as the Wall Street Journal and the Times inside a stronger enterprise. While the first phase of online transformations has been successful, sustainability of trusted, quality news media is never settled or guaranteed. The objective could hardly be more important now and in the coming years.
Viaplay in the storm: Scandi platform launches in the UK despite high cost of expansion
28 October 2022The Nordic streamer arrives in the UK on 1 November with two ad-free tiers: a basic £3.99 per month service featuring (mostly) Nordic scripted content, and a £14.99 version including sports, thanks to recently acquired Premier Sports.
Viaplay’s UK economics will revolve around sports: it has to demonstrate that there is room for a new premium service in the market. Substantial marketing efforts and distribution deals with the likes of Sky and Amazon will be critical to build penetration.
The UK is the latest territory in an ongoing aggressive international deployment that has driven Viaplay into loss. It aims at multi-territory economies of scale, which work for scripted content, but appear illusory for sports.
Alice Enders was quoted in CITY A.M on Spotify calls out ‘kafkaesque’ App Store regulations in its audiobook push
27 October 2022Long-standing music analyst at Enders Analysis Alice Enders said Ek’s comments sit within a long-standing saga between tech firms, which hinges on owning “the direct relationship with the customer”.
She told City A.M. that Spotify has a “frenemy” relationship with Apple, which means despite its flurry of criticism, it knows Apple is the ultimate gatekeeper to the army of iPhone users that it needs to keep happy.
James Barford was quoted in the Financial Times on ‘It’s an exceptional time’: UK telecoms groups urged to offer cheaper tariffs
27 October 2022“The price increase has merely compensated for other drags . . . as their energy hedges expire and wage demands increase,” said James Barford, analyst at the media consultancy Enders Analysis. He pointed to BT’s modest target for 2022 of 4 per cent growth in earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation.
Video viewing habits: Forecasting new lows for broadcasters
24 October 2022With viewing to traditional broadcast TV continuing to shrink rapidly, especially among under-45s, our latest forecasts revise a new low for broadcasters’ audiences: falling to just half of all video viewing in 2027, down from 63% today
Long-form, broadcast-quality content will increasingly be viewed on SVOD-first services (e.g. Netflix, Amazon, Disney+) as online habits solidify, especially among older audiences. Platforms offering different content (e.g. YouTube, Twitch, TikTok) will continue to grow their share and will also expand total watch-time
We forecast that under-35s will spend just a tenth to a fifth of their video time with broadcasters’ traditional long-form content five years from now, versus a third to a half for 35-54s and 85% for over-65s