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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

As Reed Hastings stepped aside as co-CEO, Netflix beat its (last ever) subscriber add forecast—7.7 million v. 4.5 million—leading to a revenue boost, alongside a gradually-widening profit margin. Forecasts for 2023 are positive, with the company seemingly past much of the tumultuousness of 2022.

With no metrics volunteered by management, we can assume that take-up of Netflix's nascent ad-supported plan has been predictably modest. To scale, the company must overcome several structural inhibitors.

With Netflix foreseeing future strain on subscriber additions, in time revenue growth will have to increasingly be inspired by paid-sharing initiatives and advertising—this will be detrimental to local content spend in minor markets.                                           

Karen Egan from research group Enders Analysis said e&’s public support for Read’s approach before his departure ‘probably prompted Cevian to pull out’. 

But she added that while the activist investors ‘may have given up hope’, other investors would be ‘campaigning hard for a fresh approach’ to recoup the losses in the share price.

‘The board will be under considerable pressure from all shareholders , many of whom will have lost a quarter of their money on Vodafone shares in the past year alone, to appoint a new boss with a more radical vision,’ Egan said.

Tom said that the shift is being driven by the increasingly sophisticated way in which SVoD services are promoting their programmes, as well as the fact that their content remains permanently available. “The viewing of less relevant content is sometimes inescapable on linear TV,” he added.

He concluded that consumers are paying less for a greater volume of choice, but watching fewer shows.

“It is a scenario that has clear winners—playing to the advantage of those with ‘bigger’ IP and programming that is able to cut through with little marketing as it is already part of the public consciousness—and those that will be challenged: spending increasing amounts on programming that has a declining chance of finding a sustainable audience.”

Structural shifts in the delivery of video are causing long-form viewing to coalesce around fewer programmes—this comes despite an explosion in the volume, spend and perceptual accessibility of content

For the time being this theoretically favours the largest of shows, along with the declining number of content providers that are able to create and distribute them at scale, forming critical masses of interest

Incoming technologies leveraging AI and virtual production will have the ability to drastically lower production costs. But until that happens the spend on most programming will become increasingly less efficient

“This is more than putting the mouse on the treadmill,” Gareth Sutcliffe, of Enders Analysis, amedia research group, said. “It can’t just be window dressing, it needs to be really material and impactful change.”

It is unlikely to be easy for Iger. “This is a CEO who likes to be liked,” Sutcliffe said. “When you’re under a significant amount of pressure, it’s going to be difficult to maintain that level of popularity.”

DAZN has published its 2021 results, with losses extending to $1.4 billion, a situation that will likely have ameliorated in 2022, as the company looks to breakeven in 2023.

With the Champions League rights renewed in Germany, and crucial distribution deals secured in Italy and Spain, DAZN has a firmer foothold in its three major European markets.

Price increases in major markets and ancillary revenue streams will help stem losses, but achieving break-even by 2023 is still a challenge.