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Rigorous Fearless Independent

Vodafone’s downgraded guidance is due to its woes in Germany rather than the economy. There is some limited reassurance that this will turnaround soon.

It remains challenging for Vodafone to achieve its revised FY guidance with a 7ppt improvement in underlying EBITDA growth required to get there.

Leverage and cash-calls are much improved, and the dividend looks assured, but the Vantage and German deals mean escalating pressures on EBITDA.

“This is a move to centralize things around him in the U.S.,” explains Claire Enders of Enders Analysis, one of the best-informed trackers of the Murdoch empire. “He wants to be back in the thick of things, it’s much more attractive to him than any option elsewhere. He is entitled to exercise leading shareholder status, keeping a grip on his media assets.” 

Karen said “Germany is definitely the big focus. If Germany sneezes, the Vodafone Group gets a cold, and Germany is definitely under the weather right now."

She predicted that the German decline is only going to get worse as we head into the second half of the year, cementing the fact that the once “ growth engine of the company continues to go into decline."

Online advertising growth at big tech firms has flatlined, with real-term declines at Meta and YouTube. The weakness is concentrated in higher funnel ads.

Advertising is a leading indicator. A hardware slowdown is coming, services growth is stuttering, and businesses will want to save on cloud services.

Investors are hostile to attempts to spend through a downturn, but competition from TikTok and developments in AI demand targeted investment, while Meta is pot-committed to the metaverse. Tech giants are looking for savings elsewhere.

 

James said "It is perhaps understandable telecoms firms offering social tariffs are not willing to spend any of their marketing budget to promote them – as they do not make them any money. But we expect some serious price increases early next year in the wider phone and broadband market with many telecoms companies using a price increase formula linked to the December rate of inflation. This means demand for social tariffs could rise."

Douglas said “The Sun’s done an amazing job relatively recently building its US audience. In a digital world, it nuts for [UK news websites] not to try for a global audience. And in fact they’ve been relatively slow at doing that.

“Mail Online’s built up a big US audience, The Sun is now building up a big US audience. But it’s sort of surprising that the English-language British news media are not going for broke on global – that’s the way to really make your brand fly.”

He added “What publishers have done is taken a print model and effectively transitioned that into an online environment without really knowing if that works,” he said. “And if you were starting from scratch, you probably wouldn’t have a newsroom with 500 journalists in it creating enough content to fill a newspaper every day.