Homepage

Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

Tom sounds a note of caution. “Supercharging Doctor Who makes sense for BBC Studios, but less so for Sony,” he says. “Sony is the only studio without a direct-to-consumer streaming service, so greater value would have to be derived from sales. 

Is there a big international buyer that wants to license – and fund – the show? Perhaps, but if there is that sort of demand, why is the show generally only on smaller channels internationally, such as BBC America? That being said, maybe Sony will take a ‘build it and they will come’ philosophy to the show.”

Tom said it may be difficult for other streamers to follow Netflix as easily in monetizing account sharing, even if it does seem inevitable. “Other streamers do not have this strength, with churn much higher and value more tenuous, but this is the direction of travel that they want, will and need to go."

He added “Of, say, the 15 to 20 percent of users that are getting the service for free, some will subscribe or bolt on to the account they are currently leeching off. Few of the paying subs will unsubscribe, with their immediate value remaining the same. A clampdown will be a net positive for Netflix.”

Alice said the deal was unsurprising in the context of the current market: “The first, and perhaps most obvious point, is that we are now another regional publisher fewer in the UK. Consolidation is always to be expected in a declining industry.”

She added  “Like any merger, it is likely the new owners will seek to reduce costs and overheads, though Rcapital will have likely realised many back-office rationalisations.”

Mobile service revenue growth improved slightly to -1.7% in Q4 as a higher mobility boost outweighed drags from continuing B2B weakness and MTR cuts.

Q1 prospects look mixed but the real turning point remains Q2 when the impact of inflation-linked price rises looks set to boost growth by 2-5ppts—nudging sector growth into positive territory for the first time since 2018.

Ofcom’s market review did not outline a change of stance on investment and consolidation in our view, but its inclination to have fewer consumer-focused initiatives is a welcome development.

Alice told City A.M. that it was “unsurprisingly disappointing for the many other advertising-reliant digital native media companies watching."

She explained how there was an inherent danger for companies like BuzzFeed in shifting from the “media” label to the “tech” one. Pickthall said it was always going to struggle to live up to investor expectations.

Tom said “The public perception has been that these services are cheap. And they certainly were. But the cost is now quickly transitioning from what is for many an automatic and then forgotten regular discretionary spend, to a noticeable chunk leaving their account.”

He added “The streaming market has been supported by debt-funded, loss-leading, loss-making models. Netflix entered the market and set a budget price and everyone has had to come in under that to compete. You had all these profitable content companies, pay-TV and linear-TV broadcasters who had to move into streaming, and it is not as profitable. Now they have to start looking at value, and customers are going to be continually asked to pay more until these things make real money.”

Jamie said "Telegram's profile has grown enormously in recent weeks, and that has raised the stakes about the impact of misinformation on the platform."

He added "Meta employs tens of thousands of moderators and huge problems still slip through the net," said MacEwan. "It is unclear how much investment in moderation Telegram can support on its current funding model."

Karen said mobile operators have realised that their ability to make returns in this sector is hinged on scale. ‘Scale’ players, like Virgin Media O2 and EE, make returns, but ‘sub-scalers’, like Vodafone and Three, struggle to”, she told City A.M.

“The idea is that consolidating from four networks to three might lead to lower prices rather than higher ones as customers are only having to fund three networks across the country rather than four."

In turn, this would allow all of the operators to make a return without driving up prices for customers – and customers would still continue to have considerable choice.