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Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

Joseph said Spotify has "good strategic reasons" to increase podcast listening on its service.

"Rogan is the biggest podcast in the US, maybe the world. His ad-reads are reportedly very effective, even among podcast ads- his audience listens to him. Obviously you have to set that against controversy, bad press, and artists leaving in protest. Is Rogan worth $200 million? Maybe not in isolation. But podcasts are a strategically important category for Spotify, and the deal gives them exclusive rights to the biggest show going."

"More non-music listening will improve its negotiating position with the major record labels, a small group of companies with must-carry content for any music streamer. Podcasts also let Spotify serve ads to its paying subscribers, a valuable target. And the more listening behaviours it can collect together on its app, the stickier and harder to leave the service becomes, pushing down churn."

Francois questions whether pay-TV customers would pay more for extra games provided under UEFA’s new Swiss model, which will see an extra 100 Champions League games played each year from 2024.

“This is typical baloney from this industry,” says Godard. “I can't believe that they're throwing such a figure.”

He added “All domestic markets are either declining or stable. We have consumer price inflation, and I'm not sure that the rights will follow the consumer prices."

“Domestic markets won't absorb higher spending and this reflects lower competitiveness in the markets.”

Douglas said "Yes, if doubters argue that investment in creative and planning are a declining need. A bunch of things have happened through the pandemic: WFH accelerated the balance of ecommerce in retail (about five years of projected growth was delivered in a lockdown or two). Most tech platforms have had bumper years. Online advertising, strongly correlated with ecommerce, has grown enormously."

But people get fixated on one side of the story. The big tech companies spend big in offline and online media. Native businesses are not just relying on search and social: TV has grown strongly, adding more new advertisers to its roster than ever. New categories like crypto products have robust marketing budgets. Outsourcing was a wildly exaggerated trend, with many experiments quickly retreating. Companies are building sustainability, not just this week’s sales.

Tom said "Unless it's differentiated, it's going to be a very difficult sell," said Tom Harrington, head of television at Enders Analysis. UK households currently have just under two subscriptions on average, one of which is normally Netflix."

"These services by large are loss making, they are still in a growth phase, and they are being forced to spend ridiculous amounts on content, which isn't necessarily being returned from subscriber fees, which are artificially pushed down by Netflix."

He added "So there's a sort of a vicious cycle going on, and people are only taking two services, so there are going to be losers."

"How this goes is very important for the future of the company, and that's why they're going all in, although they are very late and it looks like a tough sell. But who knows? It's all very early and in a few years we'll know what the people want."

Tom said “Netflix is openly supportive of at least that first step. Netflix likes to be seen to be part of the local ecosystem. Even if some sort of watershed was introduced for streaming services, Netflix voluntarily age-rates its content and has children's-friendly profiles and parental controls, so it is probably better placed than any other streaming service for whatever changes are brought in.” 

To this end, explains Tom Harrington, head of television at the media research company Enders Analysis, Netflix employs scores of metadata analysts, also known as “taggers”, whose job is to watch programmes and films and categorise them. They log everything from actors and locations, to particular emotions, trends or narrative devices, and whether a series or film qualifies as “steamy”.

“Some of the tags used can be seen in weird and oddly-specific categories that might pop up on a user’s feed,” says Harrington. “This process means that connections can be found between pieces of content that outwardly may appear very different but which might both appeal to a single viewer.”

Sky’s performance across 2021 significantly improved, driven in Q4 by a nice c.5% growth rate in UK consumer revenues and the advertising rebound, but effects of the pandemic are still being felt with EBITDA down 30% on 2019.

The decline in Group revenue accelerated in Q4 due to the severe shock to the Italian operation from its loss of most premium football coverage, although we see upsides in a possible rights reshuffle.

In 2022, Sky can leverage growth vectors including bigger content bundles, Glass, advertising innovations and broadband. Consolidating SVOD and telecoms markets may be more favourable to price increases.

Claire said "Amazon's growth is significant, but their options to maintain this growth are also more limited than Google's or Meta's were."

"Amazon's ad revenue comes largely from search and product listings using first-party data based on consumer purchases; this isn't directly comparable to Meta, which has access to a much broader range of user data, nor with Google, which comfortably outcompetes Amazon's ad products. Google will retain the edge as the internet's general search destination, despite Amazon trying to displace it as the first destination for commerce search, while YouTube captures a more diverse range of user interests and can support a much higher ad load than Prime Video."