Homepage

Enders Analysis provides a subscription research service covering the media, entertainment, mobile and fixed telecommunications industries in Europe, with a special focus on new technologies and media.

Our research is independent and evidence-based, covering all sides of the market: consumers, leading companies, industry trends, forecasts and public policy & regulation. A complete list of our research can be found here.

 

Rigorous Fearless Independent

Mobile growth dipped again to -3.3% for what we hope is the final time as widespread lockdowns impacted paid-for usage in most countries.

BT and Vodafone joined the other European MNOs in guiding to improving trends in 2021—expecting EBITDA momentum to be 7-10ppts better—slightly ahead of the 5-7ppts for the European operators.

We may even see positive revenue growth next quarter thanks to the simple annualisation of the first lockdown, with the UK the most to gain and Germany and Italy the least. Investment is creeping up too with higher capex guidance and better 5G momentum.

In a new chapter of a three year saga, the Ligue 1 awarded eight weekly games to Amazon for the 2021-24 seasons at a rock bottom price of €250 million per year, while Canal+ is left paying €330 million for only two fixtures per week.

Amazon makes a qualitative leap to become the lead broadcaster of a top domestic sport for the first time, probably reflecting more opportunism than a strategic shift.

Canal+ is asking courts to cancel the auction. Based on precedents, we expect the shift to undermine the total market for sport subscriptions.

Tom said “Opening back up won’t affect the big streaming services like Netflix, Amazon and Disney Plus anywhere near as much as smaller services that command lower engagement levels."

“Churn for Netflix will likely be returning to pre-Covid levels but it will still be lower than everyone else, except Amazon, which of course is pretty insulated from any of this due to free shipping. It will be somewhat harder for the likes of Starzplay, Britbox, Discovery+ and HayU to get new subscribers, but they are all still benefiting now from subscribers that wouldn’t have come on board in 2020 but for Covid."

Francois said “Football television rights depend directly on competition from broadcasters. However, we are far from the effervescence of a few years ago when there were new players, such as the arrival of beIN, competition from SFR or more recently Mediapro in France. Certainly, some have high hopes for platforms like Amazon or DAZN. But for now, Amazon has had a cautious strategy with no crazy spending and DAZN, while being aggressive in Italy, has remained on reasonable prices."

He added "However, they cannot necessarily pay more, at least in the short term, given the fact that the market is relatively mature and that they are subject to competition from SVoD. Football can be happy if prices stagnate!"