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Rigorous Fearless Independent

Spectrum auction assignment stages are normally fairly dull and routine, but due to the two-part nature of the 5G auctions, and the critical importance of proximity and contiguity, this is not the case with 5G.

The assignments won, combined with the Vodafone/O2 deal, ensures that all the operators enjoy at least 80MHz of (essential) proximity, but only O2 gets (nice-to-have) contiguity.

Further swaps could ensure contiguity for all, but this requires H3G to co-operate, which is in its absolute, but not relative, best interests.

Julian said the breakaway saga of the last week had thrown "even more uncertainty into the broadcasting landscape."

"The uncertainty generated by the suggestion of the ESL breakaway has caused broadcasters to be a little more concerned about the prospects of a healthy football ecosystem," he told Telegraph Sport. "So for the upcoming Premier League rights auction, in particular, I think the broadcasters are going to be slightly more cautious than they would have been otherwise had this not happened."

That caution, he says, is most likely to manifest in seeking reassurances, rather than in negotiating prices down. "It probably doesn't do too much to further devalue any values so long as they can be sure of what they are getting," 

Tom said  “More people came on board as there was nothing else to do. Churn – people dropping their subscription – is usually between 5-7 per cent but that went way down. People who were on the fence about Netflix came forward, so in effect the new subscribers they would normally expect this year came on board early. Having said that, it doesn’t mean there aren’t risks Netflix faces.”

He added “TV at the upper end is moving in the direction of cinema. There are so many shows people can’t watch them all. Netflix has 200 million subs which means time, say, three people they can push shows to 600 million. But the new Star Wars show… people will seek that out. Disney is launching Star Wars spin offs. Amazon has Lord of the Rings. Netflix needs IP.”

Subscriber growth is down but the benefits from COVID-19 have been banked and are enduring. The pandemic pulled forward new subscribers, delayed churn and higher engagement allowed price rises to be pushed through—ARPU in US/Canada, for example has now risen 74 cents in one quarter (to $14.25).

Is the Netflix narrative beginning to change from subscriber adds to engagement? As markets mature the obvious metric that could drive a corporate narrative is engagement, which is higher on Netflix than competitors and growing.

Netflix still lacks tentpole IP in a competitive space. However, the new deal with Sony conceivably gives Netflix access to IP such as Spider-ManKarate KidGhostbustersJumanji and Venom.

Europe’s larger MNOs are falling over each other to demonstrate support for OpenRAN, which has become a primarily operator-driven standards initiative, with governments also firmly behind it.

This is driven by a desire to improve equipment interoperability from the current de facto monolithic standards, improve supplier diversity, and ultimately drive down cost.

While some movement towards interoperability is perhaps overdue, OpenRAN is not a panacea, and some trade-offs between price, performance, supplier diversity and reliability have to be accepted.