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There is doubtless an element of wishful thinking in some business plans, and a round of consolidation to come. James Barford at Enders Analysis argues that often they are based on the assumption that BT’s Openreach will not roll out in the same areas.
The last lockdown caused service revenues to dip again to -7% in spite of some easing of roaming pressure and the annualisation of some early pandemic weakness.
The heralded, elevated in-contract price rises will fail to drive higher growth this year due to lower inflation—we estimate zero impact at BT/EE relative to 2020 and a reduction in revenue momentum of around 0.5ppts for each of the other operators.
The annualisation of the first lockdown is the most meaningful upside from here with a boost of around 5-7ppts possible. However, some pandemic upsides will also unwind, notably lower churn and enhanced B2B demand with the latter vulnerable to the end of furlough support and the economy.
Jamie said “Conceptually they’re quite different – one is rolling news coverage across the day, the other opinion-led discussion with more emphasis on prime time – so the two aren’t in direct competition. But they do sit very close to one another in the EPG, within the same genre, and will compete for a declining quantity of overall broadcast viewing.”
Claire said “This is absolutely the right time to be considering a sale. A deal fever has descended on the media sector and barely a day goes by without a mega merger.”
She added “It’s hard to imagine Channel 4 ever being as remotely as valuable [as] the benefits it provides. It churns out millionaires and production companies that go on to work for Netflix, Disney and Amazon Prime."
Market revenue growth improved to -1.4% in Q1 2021, a partial recovery being better than at any point in 2020, but still worse than at any point in 2019.
Next quarter the sports channel suspensions will lap out, driving strong (but temporary) year-on-year growth.
Longer-term revenue growth recovery will need backbook pricing pressure relief, which will start in Q2, and demand for ultrafast broadband.
Julian said “At the end of the day, you are talking about removing two fixtures between two of the best four teams in the competition."
The consumer books market has flourished during the pandemic: following early worries, publishers are reporting strong growth and profits
However, bookshops, the most important point of contact between the industry and readers, are facing their toughest challenge yet as ecommerce booms and continued home-working saps high street footfall
Publishers and authors are embracing new, online ways of promoting titles. These will require new ways of working, and are not substitutes for dedicated shops, which must be protected as much as possible
Tom said “It’s one of those things that if you don’t watch them you assume no one else does, but actually the audience for the Sony Movie Channel is quite big."
He added “I’d say about 70% of their audience is over 55. That’s pretty old. But the audience has been stable over the past few years. And one thing about an older audience is that they’re less likely to be recording, watching it later and fast-forwarding the ads.”
James said “The big change over the past couple of years is pressure on Huawei. Even in countries where there is no formal ban, you’re going to be thinking twice."